A busy midweek lineup of high-impact data is set to shape market sentiment, with traders closely watching key releases from Australia, China, Germany, the U.S., Canada, and Japan. Inflation prints, GDP updates, and labor market reports will offer fresh insight into the global economic outlook and could trigger significant moves across currency and equity markets. In the FX space, AUDUSD is gaining attention as the pair continues to build on its bullish momentum, while recent inflation data out of Australia and labor figures from the U.S. provide important context for trading decisions in the days ahead.
High Impact Economic Events
Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)
Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
AUDUSD has confirmed a solid bullish trend since establishing a low at 0.59124 on April 9, evidenced by a sustained sequence of higher highs and higher lows — a textbook signal of upward momentum.
The initial reversal was supported by a notable Inverted Hammer candlestick, followed closely by the appearance of a “Three White Soldiers” formation. Together, these bullish reversal patterns signaled a clear shift in sentiment and reinforced the transition to a positive market structure.
Further supporting the trend, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above the 50-period EMA, forming a “Golden Cross” — a widely recognized confirmation of trend continuation.
Momentum indicators remain firmly aligned with the bullish outlook. The Momentum Oscillator continues to print above the 100 level, suggesting sustained buying strength, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the neutral 50 mark, underscoring the market’s underlying bullish conviction.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.64484: The initial resistance level is set at 0.64484, reflecting the daily high marked April 29.
0.64853 The second price target is set at 0.64853, representing the weekly resistance, R2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.65481: The third price objective is observed at 0.65481, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from the high point, 0.69411, to the low point, 0.59124.
0.66896: An additional upside target is projected at 0.66896.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.63425: The initial support level is estimated at 0.63425, representing the low point from April 24.
0.62466: The second level is seen at 0.62466, corresponding to the weekly support, S3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.61859: The third support level is identified at 0.61859, reflecting the daily low marked March 4.
0.59124: An additional downside target is 0.59124, mirroring the trough from April 9.
Fundamentals
Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% in the March 2025 quarter, bringing annual inflation to 2.4%. Key drivers included increases in housing (+1.7%), education (+5.2%), and food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.2%). Services inflation eased to 3.7%, its lowest since June 2022, while goods inflation edged up to 1.3%, partly due to higher electricity costs.
Despite electricity prices rising 16.3% quarterly, they remain 11.5% lower year-on-year due to government rebates. Annual rental inflation eased to 5.5%, supported by increased vacancy rates and expanded rent assistance.
Trimmed mean inflation, a measure of underlying price pressure, fell to 2.9%, the lowest since 2021. Overall, the data signals inflation is moderating, though price pressures in housing, food, and education remain persistent.
On the other hand, the March 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed little change in overall labor market dynamics. Job openings remained stable at 7.2 million, though down 901,000 from a year earlier. Hiring held at 5.4 million, and total separations were steady at 5.1 million. Quits were unchanged at 3.3 million, signaling stable worker confidence, while layoffs edged down slightly to 1.6 million, reflecting modest improvement in job security. The labor market remains resilient but shows signs of gradual cooling.
Conclusion
With a wave of critical data releases ahead, markets are entering a pivotal stretch where macro fundamentals and technical patterns will heavily influence price action. AUDUSD remains technically strong, underpinned by a clear bullish structure and supportive indicators, though key resistance and support levels may soon be tested. On the macro front, Australia’s moderating inflation points to a potential policy shift ahead, while steady U.S. labor figures hint at a gradually cooling job market. As traders digest incoming data, heightened volatility, and shifting sentiment will likely define trading conditions in the days ahead.
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