As the week progresses, several key economic events are set to impact global markets. With Australia’s employment data and Switzerland’s SNB policy rate decision already in focus, attention now turns to the UK’s official bank rate announcement and U.S. unemployment claims later today. Canada’s core retail sales data on Friday will also provide insights into consumer spending trends.
In the forex market, USDJPY continues its downward trajectory, with technical indicators signaling persistent bearish momentum. Meanwhile, central banks remain a key driver of sentiment, as the Federal Reserve maintains its policy stance while the Bank of Japan exercises caution amid global uncertainties. Traders should stay alert to these developments for potential market shifts.
High Impact Economic Events
Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change(AUD)
Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)
Thursday 14:00 (GMT+2) – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)
The USDJPY currency pair has remained on a clear downward trajectory since peaking at 158.866 on January 10, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows—a hallmark of sustained bearish sentiment. The pair eventually found support at 146.530 on March 11, where candlestick reversal patterns began to emerge, signaling waning selling pressure and a degree of hesitation among market participants.
A decisive breakout above 150.138 would suggest a shift in momentum, potentially marking the beginning of a trend reversal to the upside. However, for now, the pair continues to trade below the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing the dominance of selling pressure.
Momentum indicators also align with the bearish outlook. The Momentum Oscillator remains below the critical 100 threshold, indicating sustained downside bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below 50, confirming persistent negative momentum. These factors collectively suggest that bearish conditions remain intact, with further downside risks still in play.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
150.138: The initial resistance level is established at 150.138, which mirrors the daily high marked on March 19.
151.295: The second price target is set at 151.295, reflecting the peak formed on March 3.
152.327: The third price objective is observed at 152.327, corresponding to the weekly resistance, R3, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
171.664: An additional upside target is projected at 171.664, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 161.180, to the low point, 154.783.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
148.101: The initial support level is seen at 148.101, corresponding to the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
146.530: The second support level is estimated at 146.530, representing the swing low from March 3.
145.446: The third support level is identified at 145.446, reflecting the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
144.300: An additional downside target is 144.300, mirroring the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the low point, 145.530, to the high point, 150.138.
Fundamentals
The Federal Reserve has opted to maintain the federal funds rate within the 4.25% to 4.50% range, citing continued economic expansion, a stable labor market, and persistently elevated inflation. Policymakers remain cautious amid rising economic uncertainty and reaffirm their commitment to achieving maximum employment and 2% inflation.
The Fed will slow the reduction of its securities holdings, lowering the monthly cap on Treasury security redemptions from 25 billion to 5 billion starting in April while keeping agency debt and mortgage-backed securities caps unchanged at 35 billion.
The Fed remains prepared to adjust policy if risks emerge that could threaten its economic objectives.
On the other hand, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.5%, citing global uncertainty, especially potential US tariffs. Governor Ueda noted that rising wages and food prices could push inflation higher but emphasized caution due to a possible global slowdown.
While the BOJ remains open to future hikes, it may act before the full impact of US trade policies is clear. Markets await the late April meeting for updated forecasts, with analysts expecting a possible rate hike to 0.75% by July.
Conclusion
As key economic events unfold, market participants remain focused on central bank decisions and macroeconomic data for trading cues. The USDJPY pair continues its downward trajectory, with technical indicators suggesting persistent bearish momentum unless a breakout occurs. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan’s cautious policy stances highlight the prevailing economic uncertainty, particularly around inflation and global trade risks. Traders should stay vigilant as upcoming data releases and policy shifts may drive further volatility across major currency pairs.
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