AUDUSD continues its downtrend following Trump’s election win, with the Australian dollar down over 2.5% against the US dollar since early November. Technical signals point to key resistance and support levels as sellers maintain control, yet a possible reversal could be on the horizon if buyers re-enter. Australia’s labor market showed modest growth in October, with steady employment figures keeping rate cuts off the immediate agenda, likely delayed until mid-2025 amid resilient conditions.
High Impact Economic Events
Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Chart Analysis
In the aftermath of Trump’s presidential election victory, the US dollar surged, affecting major currency pairs across the board. The Australian dollar, in particular, has depreciated by over 2.5% against the US dollar since November 5. As of the latest data, the AUDUSD has declined nearly 7% from its high of 0.6941 on September 30, influenced by a series of significant technical indicators.
A critical factor in this decline was the development of a bearish reversal pattern known as a “failure swing,” which ended the prior uptrend and set the stage for continued losses. The peak at 0.6758 failed to exceed the previous high, triggering a drop below the support level at 0.6698, confirming the failure swing. Additionally, a “Death Cross” signal emerged as the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below the 50-period EMA, amplifying downward pressure. Further reinforcing this trend, prices started to close below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating sustained weakness.
Currently, the AUDUSD price is trading below both the 20- and 50-period EMAs, while the Momentum oscillator remains under the 100 mark and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below 50—both signs of persistent bearish momentum. However, a notable positive divergence has appeared between the Momentum oscillator and price, suggesting a potential reversal may be on the horizon.

Key Resistance Levels
If buyers take control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
0.65914: The first level of resistance is determined at 0.65914, which reflects the weekly Pivot Point calculated using the standard methodology.
0.66866: The second resistance level is projected at 0.66866, which aligns with the swing high from November 7.
0.68228: The third price target is established at 0.68228, which corresponds to a peak from August 29.
0.69411: An additional price objective is estimated at 0.69411, mirroring the high reached on September 30.
Key Support Levels
If sellers maintain control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
0.64026: The initial support level is seen at 0.64026, representing the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 0.65111 to the swing high, 0.66866.
0.63474: The second support level is positioned at 0.63474, aligning with a weekly support level.
0.63207: The third downside target is noted at 0.63207, corresponding to the weekly support, S3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.62271: An additional downside target is determined at 0.62271, reflecting the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 0.65111 to the swing high, 0.66866.
Fundamentals
Australia’s job growth slowed in October with a rise of 15,900, falling short of the expected 25,000 increase, marking the smallest monthly gain in seven months. However, the jobless rate remained steady at 4.1%, indicating a relatively stable labor market. Despite the slowdown, annual employment growth remained robust at 2.7%, largely supported by full-time positions. Investors expect the first interest rate cut around mid-2025, with no immediate pressure for adjustments given the labor market’s resilience.
Conclusion
In conclusion, AUDUSD remains in a strong downtrend following Trump’s election victory, with technical indicators pointing to continued bearish momentum but also suggesting potential reversal signals. Australia’s labor market shows resilience, with steady job growth in October, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels as economic fundamentals and technical signals shape market dynamics.