Geopolitical Uncertainty and Mixed Economic Data Rattle Global Markets (June 9-13 Recap) 

This past week was marked by a series of high-impact economic data releases from both the UK and the US, offering fresh insights into inflation, labor market dynamics, and consumer sentiment. Central banks and investors closely monitored these figures amid ongoing global uncertainty. Meanwhile, major corporate earnings from GameStop, Oracle, and Adobe highlighted contrasting market reactions, with notable stock swings following their results. Commodities posted solid gains, while equities broadly declined, and currency markets responded to shifting macroeconomic signals.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, June 10

9:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

UK payrolled employment continued to decline, with early estimates showing a 109,000 drop in May 2025 and a yearly fall of 274,000. Unemployment rose to 4.6%, while the employment rate increased to 75.1%, and inactivity fell to 21.3%. More recent May data on jobless claims showed an increase of 33,100, indicating a further rise in unemployment into the following month. Vacancies declined for the 35th straight quarter, and the Claimant Count rose to 1.735 million. Real wages grew modestly, with average total pay rising 1.5% year-on-year after inflation. Workforce Jobs increased to 37.1 million, driven partly by public sector growth.

The GBPUSD pair posted a slight 0.04% increase from the previous session.

Wednesday, June 11

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

US consumer prices rose 0.1% in May, easing from a 0.2% increase in April, with annual inflation ticking up to 2.4%. Shelter costs were the main driver of the monthly rise, while food prices also rose 0.3%. Energy prices declined 1.0%, led by falling gasoline costs. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also rose 0.1% in May and 2.8% year-over-year. Over the past 12 months, food prices increased 2.9%, while energy prices dropped 3.5%.

EURUSD rose 0.6% compared to the prior session.

Thursday, June 12

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

UK GDP fell by 0.3% in April, reversing a 0.2% rise in March. The decline was led by a 0.4% drop in services and a 0.6% fall in production, partly offset by a 0.9% rise in construction. Despite the monthly dip, GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to April, driven mainly by services. Compared to a year ago, GDP was up 0.9%.

GBPUSD moved up 0.5% from its prior session.

17:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

Producer prices rose 0.1% in May after declines in the prior two months. On a yearly basis, the PPI increased 2.6%. The monthly rise was driven by a 0.1% gain in services and a 0.2% rise in goods. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) also edged up 0.1% and was up 2.7% over the year.

The EURUSD pair gained 0.8% from the prior daily trading session.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial jobless claims held steady at 248,000, while the 4-week average rose to 240,250 — the highest since August 2023. Insured unemployment rose to 1.96 million, the highest since November 2021, pushing the insured jobless rate up to 1.3%.

The USDJPY exchange rate decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous day.

Friday, June 13

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Consumer sentiment rose 16% in June, marking the first increase in six months, though it remains 20% below December 2024 levels. All index components improved, driven by better expectations for business conditions amid easing tariff concerns. Inflation expectations also fell but remain elevated as consumers remain cautious about economic risks and policy uncertainty.

EURUSD posted a 0.6% decline on the day, reflecting a shift in sentiment toward the dollar.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

Consumer inflation expectations eased in June, with year-ahead expectations dropping sharply from 6.6% to 5.1% and long-run expectations declining to 4.1%, both the lowest levels in three months. The shift reflects reduced concern over the inflationary impact of recent tariffs, though expectations remain elevated compared to late 2024, signaling ongoing caution about future price pressures.

USDJPY rose 0.4% from the previous day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices increased by 12.63% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was up 11.75% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 3.75% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 0.9% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 0.47%
2. DJIA was down by 1.49%
3. NASDAQ 100 decreased by 0.63%

Top Gainers

1. Klotho Neurosciences, Inc. (KLTO) 680.49%
2. Robin Energy Ltd. (RBNE) 409.09%
3. Houston American Energy Corp. (HUSA) 220.83%

Top Losers

1. XCF Global, Inc. (SAFX) -84.09%
2. Baiya International Group Inc. (BIYA) -82.12%
3. SharpLink Gaming, Inc. (SBET) -77.80%

Company Earnings (June 9 – 13)

Tuesday, June 10, GameStop Corp. (GME)

Wednesday, June 11: Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

Thursday, June 12, Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

GameStop beat expectations with Q1 EPS of $0.17, surpassing the $0.04 consensus by $0.13. However, revenue declined 16.9% year-over-year to $732.4 million, missing forecasts of $754.2 million. Despite the revenue miss, strong earnings lifted the outlook, with EPS projected to grow 125% next year from $0.08 to $0.18. The stock trades at a high P/E ratio of 123.2, reflecting investor expectations for future growth.

GME shares posted a steep 25.15% weekly loss.

Oracle beat Q4 revenue and EPS guidance, driven by 27% cloud growth and strong OCI demand. Future revenue appears solid, with performance obligations increasing 41% to $ 138 billion. However, free cash flow was negative due to high CapEx, which is expected to rise further. Supply constraints and ongoing database migration pose challenges, while investor uncertainty lingers over the long-term profitability of its AI business.

ORCL shares surged 23.68% over the past week.

Adobe reported record Q2 revenue of $5.87 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with strong EPS and growth across its Digital Media segment. AI-driven tools like Firefly and Acrobat AI Assistant are boosting ARR ahead of targets. However, competitive pressures, early-stage pricing strategies, and macroeconomic uncertainty remain challenges.

ADBE shares declined 6.05% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

Last week’s economic and market activity reflected a mix of cautious optimism and underlying challenges. While inflation data signaled some cooling and consumer sentiment showed signs of recovery, labor market signals in both the UK and the US pointed to emerging pressure points. Corporate earnings highlighted divergent fortunes—Oracle impressed with strong cloud growth, Adobe posted solid results with AI momentum, while GameStop’s revenue miss weighed heavily on its stock. Meanwhile, commodities rallied sharply, but equity markets remained under pressure. As investors weigh macro signals against sector-specific developments, the outlook remains nuanced and data-driven.