Investors are bracing for a series of high-impact economic releases that could significantly sway market sentiment and asset prices. On Thursday, the focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index and Unemployment Claims, followed by the UK’s GDP data on Friday and the US Producer Price Index.
These releases come against the backdrop of renewed US-China trade tensions, after President Trump announced a sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese imports—from 104% to 125%—escalating the trade conflict despite a temporary reprieve for other nations. This geopolitical jolt has added fuel to Gold’s ongoing rally, with investors increasingly turning to the metal as a hedge amid rising inflation concerns and global uncertainty.
Since rebounding from its April 7 low of $2,536.38, Gold has resumed its upward trajectory, triggered by the formation of a Morning Star candlestick pattern—often viewed as a bullish reversal signal. This move has positioned the metal to challenge its all-time high of $3,167.53.
The rally is supported by a confluence of technical and fundamental factors. On the technical side, bullish momentum is gaining traction, evidenced by the Momentum Oscillator crossing above the 100 baseline and price action remaining firmly above both the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). These developments indicate growing trend strength and reinforce the prevailing bullish sentiment.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 mark, suggesting continued positive momentum and room for further upside.
Key Resistance Levels
If buyers maintain control of the market, traders may shift their focus to the following four potential resistance levels:
3167.53: The initial resistance level is estimated at 3167.53, mirroring the all-time high reached on April 3.
3225.18: The second price target is seen at 3225.18, reflecting the weekly resistance, R2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
3298.02: The third price target is established at 3298.02, corresponding to the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 3167.53 to 2956.38.
3509.17: An additional price objective is estimated at 3509.17, representing the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 3167.53 to 2956.38.
Key Support Levels
If sellers take control of the market, traders may focus on the following four key support levels:
3073.71: The initial support level is seen at 3073.71, representing the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
2956.38: The second support level is positioned at 2956.38, aligning with the trough from April 7.
2922.24: The third downside target is noted at 2922.24, corresponding to the weekly support, S2, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
2832.57: An additional downside target is determined at 2832.57, reflecting the swing low from February 28.
Fundamentals
Gold rose more than 1.6% on Thursday, with spot prices reaching $3,132.47 an ounce, as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions renewed demand for safe-haven assets. The rally follows President Trump’s announcement of a steep tariff hike on Chinese imports to 125%, intensifying the trade war despite a temporary tariff pause for other countries. Analysts see potential for gold to hit $3,200 by month-end, supported by expectations of slower US growth, possible Fed rate cuts, and persistent inflation concerns. Gold prices have risen over 19% in 2025, driven by geopolitical risks, robust central bank demand, and increasing ETF inflows.
Conclusion
With a packed economic calendar and heightened geopolitical tensions, market participants are navigating a landscape marked by uncertainty and opportunity. Gold’s impressive rally—fueled by technical strength, safe-haven demand, and concerns over the inflationary impact of Trump’s aggressive tariff policy—positions the metal as a key asset to watch in the coming sessions. As US inflation and labor data take center stage, alongside the UK’s GDP print, traders will be closely monitoring for signals that could further validate or challenge the current bullish trend.
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