Gold’s $3K Break: Tariffs, Fed Moves, and the Unstoppable Rally

Gold has dominated headlines by breaking through key price thresholds, fueled by tariff-related uncertainties and expectations of accommodative Federal Reserve policy. Despite softer U.S. inflation data providing temporary relief, fears persist that new tariffs could reignite cost pressures. As strong technical indicators and bullish forecasts push Gold toward (and even beyond) the $3,000 mark, investors remain mindful of a potential slowdown, given mounting market volatility and historically high prices. 

Gold extended its gains on haven demand, boosted by uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly enacted steel and aluminum tariffs. Although U.S. inflation eased in February, providing short-term relief, concerns remain that tariffs could reignite price pressures. With traders wary of future Federal Reserve rate decisions, Gold’s appeal grows in part because it doesn’t offer interest, making it more attractive in a low-rate environment.

Gold climbed to a record above $2,993 an ounce on Friday, lifting shares of Asian Gold miners as investors sought safe-haven assets amid global trade tensions and soft U.S. inflation data. This environment, which has raised expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, added to bullion’s appeal. Some jewelry stocks also surged but later moderated, reflecting concerns that consumers might reduce purchases at historically high prices.

Gold surged to a fresh record near $3,000 an ounce, bolstered by deepening worries over U.S. economic growth, President Donald Trump’s trade stance, and expectations of easier monetary policy following a lukewarm inflation report. Banks have lifted their forecasts, with some predicting the metal could soar past $3,500 later this year. Market turmoil, fueled by mounting equity volatility and rising bond yields, has also amplified Gold’s appeal as a safe haven, driving strong inflows and pushing prices higher.

Gold has extended its three-month rally to yet another all-time high, reaching $2,993.82 per troy ounce. The precious metal continues to trade above its 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), highlighting robust buying interest. Key momentum signals further reinforce the bullish outlook: the Momentum Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) both remain above critical thresholds (100 and 50, respectively), with the RSI now in overbought territory above 70.

However, the emergence of a negative RSI divergence relative to price action suggests the possibility of a near-term slowdown or corrective retracement. Should bullish momentum persist, technical targets reside at $3,031, $3,154, and $3,352. On the downside, a sustained drop below the $2,956 and $2,832 support levels may signal a shift in market sentiment toward increased selling pressure.

In conclusion, Gold remains on a robust upward trajectory, bolstered by policy uncertainty, tariff-driven concerns, and steady demand for safe-haven assets. While fundamentals and technical indicators suggest additional upside potential, investors should watch for signs of market fatigue—particularly in light of overbought momentum readings and the possibility of corrective pullbacks.