Global Markets Steady as Policy Shifts and Earnings Shape the Week (June 16 – 20 Recap)

The week ending June 20 offered a mixed snapshot of the global economy, with central banks adjusting course based on shifting inflation dynamics and regional growth trends. Market reactions were generally moderate, though currency and commodity movements reflected changing sentiment. Corporate earnings added another layer, with Kroger outperforming, while Accenture and Progressive showed more subdued investor responses. As uncertainty persists around inflation, global trade, and monetary policy, markets are likely to remain sensitive to upcoming data and guidance.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, June 17

Tentative – Japan: Policy Rate (JPY)

On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate at 0.5 percent and confirmed it will gradually reduce its bond purchases, aiming for 2 trillion yen per month by early 2027

Japan’s economy is recovering moderately but faces weak spots like housing and consumer sentiment. Inflation is around 3.5 percent due to higher food and import costs.

Growth may slow in the short term from global trade risks but is expected to improve later.

USDJPY rose 0.35% from the previous day’s close.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

Retail and food service sales in the US fell 0.9 percent in May compared to April but were still 3.3 percent higher than a year ago.

Sales from March through May were up 4.5 percent compared to the same period last year.

Online retailers experienced strong growth, up 8.3 percent from May 2024, while restaurants and bars rose 5.3 percent year-over-year.

EURUSD slipped 0.7% day over day.

Wednesday, June 18

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Inflation in the UK eased slightly in May. The CPIH, which includes housing costs, rose 4.0% over the past year, down from 4.1% in April. The more widely followed CPI rose 3.4%, slightly lower than April’s 3.5%.

Price rises slowed the most in transport, helping ease overall inflation. However, food, furniture, and household goods kept upward pressure on prices.

Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also cooled. Both CPIH and CPI core rates were lower in May compared to April.

GBPUSD ticked lower by 0.04% compared to the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

New claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly to 245,000, down 5,000 from the week before. However, the four-week average rose to 245,500 — the highest since August 2023 — suggesting a gradual upward trend in layoffs.

EURUSD ticked 0.01% lower from the previous daily session.

21:00 – USA: Federal Funds Rate (USD)

The US economy continues to grow steadily, with a strong job market and low unemployment. Inflation is still somewhat high, but the outlook has become less uncertain.

To support stable prices and strong employment, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. It will also continue reducing its holdings of government bonds.

The Fed will closely watch economic data and is ready to adjust policy if needed to keep inflation in check and support the economy.

USDJPY slipped 0.1% from the previous close.

Thursday, June 19

01:45 am – New Zealand: GDP q/q (NZD)

New Zealand’s economy grew 0.8 percent in the March 2025 quarter, improving from a 0.5 percent rise in the previous quarter. Spending in the economy also rose by 0.9 percent.

However, when looking at the full year to March 2025, the economy shrank by 1.1 percent, and total spending dropped 0.9 percent compared to the year before. This shows short-term growth but a weaker performance over the past year.

NZDUSD decreased by 0.64% compared to the previous day.

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent in May, even though total employment dropped slightly by 2,000 people.

Compared to a year ago, employment is still up 2.3 percent, outpacing the long-term average. While overall workforce participation dipped a bit, the share of women employed hit a record high.

Hours worked rose 1.3 percent, bouncing back from recent holidays and weather-related disruptions.

AUDUSD fell 0.42% compared to the previous daily session.

10:30 am – Switzerland: SNB Policy Rate (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank lowered its key interest rate to 0% as inflation fell below zero in May. The move aims to support price stability amid easing inflation pressures.

Economic growth was strong early in 2025 but is expected to slow. The SNB sees GDP rising 1% to 1.5% this year and next. Global risks, especially from trade tensions, remain high.

USDCHF edged down 0.25% from the prior day’s close.

14:00 – UK: Official Bank Rate (GBP)

The Bank of England kept interest rates at 4.25% as inflation remained above target. Some policymakers favored a small cut, but most opted to wait.

The economy is weak, wage growth is slowing, and inflation is expected to ease next year. The Bank says future rate changes will depend on economic data.

GBPUSD ticked higher by 0.35% compared to the previous day.

Friday, June 20

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Retail sales in the UK dropped by 2.7% in May, after a strong 1.3% rise in April, which had been boosted by good weather.

Food store sales were a key reason for the decline in May.

Despite the monthly drop, sales were still up 0.8% over the three months to May compared to the previous three-month period.

GBPUSD decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous session.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices increased by 1.44% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was up 3.75% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.87% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD decreased by 0.83% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 0.01%
2. DJIA was up by 0.26%
3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 0.08%

Top Gainers

1. SRM Entertainment, Inc. (SRM) 661.38%
2. Next Technology Holding Inc. (NXTT) 184.30%
3. System1, Inc. (SST) 146.77%

Top Losers

1. SeaStar Medical Holding Corporation (ICU) -70.13%
2. Stardust Power Inc. (SDST) -66.39%
3. Hyperscale Data, Inc. (GPUS) -65.92%

Company Earnings (June 16 – 20)

Wednesday, June 18: PGR (The Progressive Corporation)

Friday, June 20: ACN (Accenture plc)

Friday, June 20: KR (The Kroger Co.)

In its latest quarter, Progressive (PGR) earned $4.65 per share, slightly below expectations of $4.72 — a 1.5% miss.

The company’s next earnings report is due on July 15, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of $4.07 per share, which would be a strong 54% increase from the same period last year.

PGR shares declined by 2.18% compared to the previous week.

Accenture reported earnings of $3.49 per share, beating estimates of $3.30, with revenue rising to $17.73 billion. This is up from $3.13 EPS and $16.47 billion in revenue a year ago.

Despite strong results, the stock is down nearly 13% this year. Analysts expect $3 EPS and $17.12 billion in revenue next quarter.

ACN shares fell by 8.45% from the previous week.

Kroger reported earnings of $1.49 per share last quarter, topping expectations of $1.45 — a 2.8% surprise.

The next earnings report is expected on September 11, 2025, with analysts forecasting $1.02 per share, up nearly 10% from the same period last year.

KR shares climbed 9.78% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

The week of June 16–20 featured a series of key central bank decisions, economic data releases, and corporate earnings reports that influenced global markets. Central banks in Japan, Switzerland, and the UK held or adjusted policy rates amid changing inflation trends, while US retail sales and jobless claims provided fresh insight into the economy’s momentum. Currency markets responded modestly to these developments, and major commodities saw mixed performance. Meanwhile, earnings reports from Progressive, Accenture, and Kroger highlighted varying trends across sectors, with Kroger standing out as a top performer.