Markets in Flux: Jobs Steady, Tariff Tensions, and Nasdaq Risks

As global markets navigate a mix of economic signals and policy uncertainties, key developments are shaping the financial landscape. Steady U.S. job growth offers a positive outlook, but looming tariff threats under President-elect Trump could disrupt global trade dynamics. Meanwhile, traders remain cautious ahead of critical U.S. inflation data, while the Nasdaq 100 faces sustained bearish momentum. Together, these factors highlight a delicate balance of risks and opportunities for investors heading into 2025.

U.S. job growth remained steady in December, with nonfarm payrolls adding 256,000 jobs and unemployment holding at 4.1%. Gains were led by healthcare, government, and social assistance, while retail trade rebounded after prior losses. Despite stable employment, wages rose modestly, and work hours remained unchanged. Businesses continue to monitor labor market trends as broader economic conditions evolve.

Global trade faces uncertainty as President-elect Donald Trump’s potential tariffs loom, with $24 trillion in goods trade at stake. According to Bloomberg’s Trade Tracker, international trade shows mixed signals as businesses brace for potential disruptions. Companies are frontloading imports, while some factories in China consider new production hubs. Analysts caution that tariffs could arrive early in Trump’s term, potentially reshaping the trade landscape and moving further away from globalization. Meanwhile, nations like Vietnam and Mexico may gain as the U.S. reduces its reliance on Chinese imports. Although protectionism poses risks, businesses are already preparing to adapt, drawing lessons from the 2018-2019 trade war.

Traders are closely watching U.S. inflation data this week to gauge its impact on interest rate expectations as fears of prolonged inflation grow under the incoming Trump administration. Markets remain volatile, with Asian indices fluctuating and the dollar easing amid reports of potential gradual tariff hikes. While Wall Street saw a slight recovery, concerns linger over inflation, Fed policy, and a high-stakes earnings season, leaving global markets on edge.

The Nasdaq 100 Index continues to exhibit bearish momentum despite a brief rebound from the 20,476.40 level. Since reaching its peak of 22,172.15 on December 16, the index has maintained a distinct downtrend, with lower peaks and lower troughs confirming sustained selling pressure. Notably, prices remain below both the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating ongoing downside risk, though a bearish crossover has yet to materialize.
Key technical indicators support the prevailing bearish sentiment: the Momentum Oscillator remains below the critical 100 mark, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the neutral 50 level. Should the downtrend persist, traders are likely to monitor key support levels at 20,476.40 and 20,200.37. On the other hand, a reversal could see resistance levels at 21,041.55 and 21,684.40 acting as pivotal hurdles in any potential recovery.

As markets head into 2025, investors are navigating a complex environment shaped by steady job growth, looming tariff uncertainties, and fluctuating market sentiment. While U.S. employment data offers a positive signal, concerns over inflation, Fed policy, and trade tensions remain key risks. With the Nasdaq 100 under continued pressure and global trade dynamics at a potential turning point, careful monitoring of key indicators and policy shifts will be crucial in determining the market’s direction.