Markets Juggle Mixed Signals: Tech Soars, Macro Risks Linger

The week ending May 2, 2025, was marked by a series of high-impact economic indicators, central bank decisions, and key corporate earnings that collectively shaped market sentiment. US data reflected growing concerns over trade policy, inflation pressures, and labor market dynamics, while global inflation readings and central bank stances added to investor caution. Meanwhile, earnings season remained in full swing, with tech giants like Microsoft and Meta delivering standout results, while others, including Starbucks and McDonald’s, faced mixed reactions. Commodities broadly declined, and equity markets posted strong gains, highlighting a complex but resilient investment landscape.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, April 29

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

The March JOLTS report revealed a more cautious hiring environment, with job openings falling to 7.2 million amid rising policy uncertainty. While quits ticked higher, prompting some backfilling, the overall hiring rate held steady. Notably, layoffs declined, suggesting employers remain hesitant to reduce staff despite the softer demand outlook.

The EURUSD exchange rate fell by 0.30%.

Wednesday, April 30

04:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Australia’s annual CPI inflation held steady at 2.4% in the March quarter, while trimmed mean inflation — a key measure of underlying price pressures — fell to 2.9%, its lowest level since December 2021.

The AUDUSD ticked up by 0.3%.

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

China’s factory activity fell to a 16-month low in April, with the official PMI slipping to 49.0 as escalating US tariffs disrupted trade and weighed on manufacturing demand. Despite government stimulus efforts, analysts warn growth will slow further if tensions persist.

The USDCNH exchange rate increased by 0.02%.

All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s inflation rate is projected to reach 2.1% in April 2025 compared to a year earlier, according to preliminary data from Destatis. Consumer prices also rose 0.4% from March. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to be higher at 2.9%, signaling continued underlying price pressures.

The EURUSD declined by 0.5%.

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Private sector employment in the US rose by 62,000 jobs in April, while annual pay increased 4.5% year-over-year, according to the ADP National Employment Report produced with Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab. Based on anonymized payroll data from over 25 million workers, the report offers a high-frequency, real-time view of labor market trends and wage growth across the private sector.

The USDJPY exchange rate increased by 0.53%.

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Canada’s real GDP fell by 0.2% in February, partially offsetting January’s 0.4% gain. The decline was led by a 0.6% drop in goods-producing industries, particularly mining, oil and gas, and construction. Services-producing industries edged down 0.1%, with weakness in transportation, warehousing, and real estate partly balanced by gains in finance and insurance. Overall, 12 of 20 sectors contracted during the month.

The USDCAD currency pair dropped by 0.24%.

15:30 – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

The US economy shrank 0.3% in Q1 2025, driven by a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s new tariffs and growing policy uncertainty. Consumer spending slowed, inflation rose, and federal spending declined, complicating the outlook for the Federal Reserve. Despite strong private investment, the report raises concerns about a potential recession.

The GBPUSD exchange rate decreased by 0.55%.

17:00 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

In March, US personal income rose 0.5%, disposable income increased 0.5%, and consumer spending climbed 0.7%. The personal saving rate was 3.9%. Annual inflation, measured by the PCE price index, was 2.3%, or 2.6%, excluding food and energy.

The USDCHF exchange rate increased by 0.3%.

Thursday, May 1

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

At its latest monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan unanimously agreed to maintain its target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0.5%, signaling no change in its current interest rate policy.

The USDJPY exchange rate rose 1.61%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

For the week ending April 26, US initial jobless claims rose by 18,000 to 241,000, while the 4-week average increased to 226,000. Insured unemployment climbed to 1.916 million—the highest since November 2021—pushing the insured jobless rate up to 1.3%.

The EURUSD fell by 0.35%.

17:00 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing activity contracted in April, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7%. New orders, production, and employment declined, while supplier deliveries slowed and prices rose. Despite some input growth, overall demand weakened, signaling continued headwinds for the sector.

The USDCAD increased by 0.40%.

Friday, May 2

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

US nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 in April, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Job gains were seen in health care, transportation, financial activities, and social assistance, though federal employment declined.

The EURUSD exchange rate ticked up 0.08%.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices decreased by 7.58% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was down 6.85% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.36% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD decreased by 3.30% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 2.92%
2. DJIA was up by 3.04%
3. NASDAQ 100 rose 3.38%

Top Gainers

1. Classover Holdings, Inc. (KIDZ) 564.82%
2. Jade Biosciences, Inc. (JBIO) 365.67%
3. Above Food Ingredients Inc. (ABVE) 226.47%

Top Losers

1. NewGenIvf Group Limited (NIVF) -91.46%
2. Petros Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PTPI) -81.56%
3. E-Home Household Service Holdings Limited (EJH) -80.26%

Company Earnings (April 28 – May 2)

Monday, April 28: PYPL (PayPal Holdings Inc)

Tuesday, April 29: BP (BP PLC)

Tuesday, April 29: GM (General Motors Co)

Tuesday, April 29: KO (Coca-Cola Co)

Tuesday, April 29: SBUX (Starbucks Corp)

Tuesday, April 29: PFE (Pfizer Inc)

Tuesday, April 29: SNAP (Snap Inc)

Tuesday, April 29: V (Visa Inc)

Wednesday, April 30: CAT (Caterpillar Inc.)

Wednesday, April 30: META (Meta Platforms Inc)

Wednesday, April 30: EBAY (eBay Inc)

Wednesday, April 30: MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

Thursday, May 1: AAPL (Apple Inc.)

Thursday, May 1: AIG (American International Group Inc)

Thursday, May 1: AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)

Thursday, May 1: MCD (Mcdonald’s Corp)

Friday, May 2: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corp)

PayPal reported Q1 2025 earnings with an EPS of $1.33, beating estimates by $0.17. Revenue rose 1.2% year-over-year to $7.79 billion, slightly missing the $7.84 billion forecast.

PYPL shares increased by 2.91% compared to the previous week.

BP reported Q1 2025 EPS of $0.53, missing estimates by $0.03, while revenue fell 4% year-over-year to $46.91 billion, beating expectations.

BP shares saw a weekly decrease of 3.67%.

General Motors posted Q1 2025 EPS of $2.78, beating estimates by $0.15, with revenue up 2.3% to $44.02 billion. Earnings are projected to grow 3.3% next year.

GM shares decreased by 3.84% compared to the previous week.

Coca-Cola reported Q1 2025 EPS of $0.73, beating estimates by $0.02, while revenue dipped 0.7% to $11.13 billion, missing expectations. Earnings are projected to grow 7.8% next year.

KO shares dipped by 0.36% compared to the closing price from the previous week.

Starbucks reported Q2 2025 EPS of $0.41, missing estimates by $0.10, with revenue up 2.3% to $8.76 billion, below expectations.

SBUX shares ended the week with an increase of 1.05%.

Pfizer reported Q1 2025 EPS of $0.92, beating estimates by $0.25, while revenue fell 7.8% to $13.72 billion, missing expectations.

PFE shares experienced a weekly increase of 5.58%.

Snap reported a Q1 2025 loss of $0.08 per share, missing estimates by $0.12, while revenue rose 14.1% year-over-year to $1.36 billion, slightly beating expectations.

SNAP shares dipped 1.05% compared to the previous week.

The credit giant reported Q1 revenue of $9.59 billion, up 9% year-over-year and above expectations. Adjusted net income rose to $5.44 billion ($2.76 per share), beating analyst estimates.

V shares increased by 3.71%from the previous week.

Caterpillar reported Q1 2025 EPS of $4.25, missing estimates by $0.10, with revenue down 9.8% to $14.25 billion, below expectations. Earnings are projected to grow 11.3% next year.

CAT shares increased by 5.62% compared to the previous week.

Meta reported Q1 2025 EPS of $6.43, beating estimates by $1.10, with revenue up 16.1% to $42.31 billion. Earnings are expected to grow 13.15% next year.

META shares rose by 9.09% compared to the previous week.

eBay reported Q1 2025 EPS of $1.38, beating estimates by $0.04, with revenue up 1.1% to $2.59 billion, slightly above expectations.

EBAY shares rose 1.14% from the previous week’s closing price.

Microsoft stock jumped over 10% after a strong Q3 2025 earnings beat, with EPS of $3.46 topping estimates by 7% and revenue rising 13% year-over-year to $70.07 billion.

MSFT shares ended the week with an increase of 11.08%.

Apple reported Q2 2025 EPS of $1.65, beating estimates by $0.03, with revenue up 5.1% year-over-year to $95.36 billion, topping expectations.

AAPL shares fell by 1.88% compared to the previous week.

AIG reported Q1 2025 EPS of $1.17, beating estimates by $0.13, while revenue missed slightly at $6.77 billion. Earnings are expected to grow 22.3% next year.

AIG shares rose by 3.00% compared to the previous week.

Amazon reported Q1 2025 EPS of $1.59, beating estimates by $0.21, with revenue up 8.6% to $155.67 billion. Earnings are expected to grow 17.9% next year.

AMZN shares decreased by 0.52% compared to the previous week.

McDonald’s reported Q1 2025 EPS of $2.67, matching estimates, with revenue down 3.5% to $5.96 billion, missing expectations. Earnings are projected to grow 8.2% next year.

MCD shares fell by 1.51% compared to the closing price from the previous week.

Exxon Mobil declared a Q2 dividend of $0.99 and reported lower Q1 2025 earnings year-over-year. Weaker oil prices and trade uncertainty weighed on its stock despite broader market gains.

XOM shares fell by 2.17% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

The first week of May 2025 closed with a complex mix of economic data, central bank signals, and corporate earnings that left markets both cautiously optimistic and selectively risk-averse. While US equities rallied on strong tech earnings, macro indicators—such as weaker GDP growth, rising jobless claims, and persistent inflation—underscored ongoing uncertainties tied to trade policy and monetary direction. Global inflation trends and central bank actions reinforced a wait-and-see stance while commodities sold off sharply. Overall, investors appear increasingly selective, rewarding earnings outperformance but remaining sensitive to macro risks that continue to shape market dynamics.