Markets Rally as Data Sends Mixed Messages (June 30 – July 4 Recap)

Last week saw mixed economic signals across major markets. China’s manufacturing continued to contract, while US factory activity also declined, though more slowly. US private sector jobs fell, but government hiring lifted overall employment. Inflation in Switzerland edged up slightly. The US services sector returned to modest growth, despite ongoing hiring weakness. 

In markets, crude and Brent oil rose over 2%, while gold and silver posted weekly gains of 1.59% and 2.46%, respectively. US stocks also advanced, with the Dow up 1.33%. Notable earnings included strong stock gains for Constellation Brands, MSC Industrial, and National Beverage following solid or expected results. 

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review 

Monday, June 30 

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNH) 

China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in June, despite slight improvements and government efforts to boost the economy. Deflation, weak exports, and falling factory jobs continue to weigh on growth. While construction and some factory demand improved, economists remain cautious about the outlook for the rest of the year. 

USDCNH ended the week down by 0.20%. 

Tuesday, July 1 

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) 

US manufacturing contracted for the fourth straight month in June, though at a slower pace than in May. Production improved and inventories rose, but new orders and employment continued to weaken. While some industries showed growth, nearly half of the sector remains in decline, signaling ongoing caution in the manufacturing economy. 

Market expectations are for a subdued 48.8, below the growth threshold. 

EURUSD increased by 0.16% day-to-day. 

Wednesday, July 2 

15:15 – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)  

US private sector employment fell by 33,000 jobs in June, according to ADP. While hiring slowed, annual pay still rose 4.4%, showing that wage growth remains steady despite job losses. 

EURUSD fell 0.41% from the previous day. 

Thursday, July 3 

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)  

Swiss consumer prices rose by 0.2% in June 2025, mainly due to higher costs for holidays, hotels, and vegetables. Compared to a year ago, inflation was just 0.1%, as lower prices for petrol and air travel helped offset some of the increases. 

USDCHF registered a daily increase of 0.38%. 

15:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD) 

The US added 147,000 jobs in June, with gains in state government and health care. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Long-term unemployment and discouraged workers increased, while overall labor force participation stayed mostly unchanged. 

EURSD decreased by 0.36% compared to the previous day. 

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD) 

US services activity grew in June after a brief dip in May, with the Services PMI rising to 50.8. Business activity and new orders improved, but hiring slowed and backlogs shrank further. While prices remained high, the overall pace of growth was modest and marked by ongoing uncertainty. 

USDJPY increased by 0.9% from the previous day. 

Commodities 

1. Crude Oil  

1. Crude oil prices increased by 2.21% over the past week 

2. Brent Oil  

1. Brent was up 2.55% compared to the previous week 

3. Gold  

1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 1.59% weekly increase 

4. Silver  

1. XAGUSD increased by 2.455% from last week 

Stock Market 

1. S&P 500 increased by 0.98% 

2. DJIA was up by 1.33% 

3. NASDAQ 100 increased by 0.74% 

Top Gainers 

1. Blue Gold Limited (BGL) 435.26% 

2. Lixte Biotechnology Holdings, Inc. (LIXT) 267.53% 

3. Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings, Inc. (SONN) 240.87% 

Top Losers 

1. Youxin Technology Ltd (YAAS) -87.77% 

2. GIBO Holdings Limited (GIBO) -71.21% 

3. Mullen Automotive, Inc. (MULN) -70.59% 

Company Earnings (June 30 – July 4)  

Tuesday, July 1: STZ (Constellation Brands, Inc.) 

Tuesday, July 1: MSM (MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.) 

Wednesday, July 2: FIZZ (National Beverage Corp.) 

Constellation Brands reported earnings of $3.38 per share for the quarter ending May 2025, down 5.3% from last year. The company previously missed earnings expectations in late 2024, and its projected 2026 P/E ratio is lower than the industry average. 

STZ shares increased 6.81% compared to the previous week. 

MSC Industrial Direct beat expectations in Q3 2025 with earnings of $1.08 per share, topping estimates by $0.05. Revenue dipped slightly from last year but still came in above forecasts at $971.15 million. Looking ahead, earnings are projected to grow by over 13% next year. 

MSM shares climbed 5.25% from the previous week. 

National Beverage reported earnings of $0.48 per share, matching expectations. Revenue was higher than forecast at $313.6 million, and profits were slightly up from last year. 

FIZZ shares increased by 10.66% over the last week. 

Conclusion 

Overall, last week highlighted a global economy navigating mixed signals—continued weakness in manufacturing was balanced by modest growth in services and steady consumer demand in some regions. Financial markets responded positively, with gains across major stock indices, commodities, and several corporate earnings outperforming expectations. Despite lingering concerns around hiring and inflation, investors showed cautious optimism heading into the second half of the year.