Mixed Signals, Market Cheers: Data & Earnings Fuel Weekly Gains

Last week featured a packed calendar of key economic data and corporate earnings that shaped market sentiment across currencies, commodities, and equities. Highlights included US inflation and retail sales data, UK labour market updates, Australia’s employment figures, and GDP estimates from the UK. Meanwhile, earnings from major firms like Cisco, Alibaba, and Walmart added further insight into the health of corporate America and global retail. Market reactions varied, with modest moves in currencies, notable shifts in commodities, and strong gains in major U.S. stock indices.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Tuesday, May 13

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

UK payrolled employees fell by 47,000 in March and are down 106,000 annually in the provisional April estimate. The Labour Force Survey data for January to March 2025 show an employment rate of 75.0%, unemployment at 4.5%, and economic inactivity at 21.4%.

The UK Claimant Count rose to 1.726 million in April, up on both the month and the year. Vacancies continued to decline, down 42,000 to 761,000—marking the 34th consecutive fall.

Average earnings rose 5.6% annually, with real pay up 1.8% (CPIH) and 2.6% (CPI).

GBPUSD advanced by 0.98% from the previous day.

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% decline in March. Year-over-year, inflation eased to 2.3%, the smallest annual increase since February 2021.

Shelter costs were the main driver, rising 0.3%, while energy prices increased 0.7%. Food prices fell 0.1%, led by a 0.4% drop in grocery costs.

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also rose 0.2% in April and 2.8% over the past year. Energy prices declined 3.7% year-over-year, while food prices rose 2.8%.

EURUSD increased by 0.91% from the previous day’s closing price.

Thursday, May 15

04:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)

Employment rose to 14.6 million in April, with increases in both full-time and part-time jobs. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and the participation rate remained at 67.0%. Overall, the labour market remained stable with continued employment growth.

AUDUSD ticked lower by 0.35% from the previous daily session.

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

UK GDP grew by 0.2% in March 2025, following 0.5% growth in February. Over the three months to March, the economy expanded by 0.7%, led by a 0.7% rise in services output.

In March, services rose 0.4%, construction grew 0.5%, while production fell 0.7%. Compared to a year ago, GDP was up 1.1%.

GBPUSD ticked higher by 0.32% compared to the previous day.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.5% in April, driven by a 0.7% decline in service prices, while goods prices were unchanged. This marks the largest monthly drop since April 2020. Over the past year, the PPI rose 2.4%. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade) edged down 0.1% in April but rose 2.9% year-over-year.

EURUSD increased by 0.14% from the previous day’s closing price.

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)

US retail and food services sales rose 0.1% in April 2025, and were up 5.2% year-over-year. Sales from February to April increased 4.8% compared to the same period last year. Retail trade sales dipped 0.1% on the month but were up 4.7% from April 2024. Notably, motor vehicle sales rose 9.4% and food services gained 7.8% year-over-year.

USDJPY declined by 0.73% compared to the previous day.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial jobless claims held steady at 229,000, while the 4-week average rose slightly to 230,500. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%. Continuing claims increased by 9,000 to 1.88 million, with the 4-week average edging up to 1.87 million.

Friday, May 16

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Consumer sentiment changed a little in May, slipping just 1.4 index points. However, it remains nearly 30% lower than in January 2025, following four months of sharp declines.

EURUSD decreased by 0.24% from the previous daily session.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 6.5% to 7.3% in May, with increases seen across political groups. Long-run expectations also rose, from 4.4% to 4.6%, driven largely by Republicans. The final May data will show whether the May 12 pause on some China tariffs affects these views.

USDJPY ticked lower by 0.02% from the previous day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices increased by 1.44% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was up 2.24% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 3.75% weekly decrease
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD decreased by 1.34% from last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 increased by 4.68%
2. DJIA was up by 2.77%
3. NASDAQ 100 rose 6.28%

Top Gainers

1. Inozyme Pharma, Inc. (INZY) 243.48%
2. Kindly MD, Inc. (KDLY) 232.05%
3. NWTN Inc. (NWTN) 211.15%

Top Losers

1. Polyrizon Ltd. (PLRZ) -98.24%
2. Healthcare Triangle, Inc. (HCTI) -96.02%
3. High-Trend International Group (HTCO) -84.78%

Company Earnings (May 12 – 16)

Wednesday, May 14: CSCO (Cisco Systems Inc)

Thursday, May 15: BABA (Alibaba Group Holding Ltd)

Thursday, May 15: WMT (Walmart Inc)

Cisco reported Q3 2025 earnings on May 14, posting an EPS of $0.96, beating estimates by $0.05. Revenue came in at $14.15 billion, slightly above the $14.05 billion expected by analysts.

CSCO shares advanced 6.44% compared to the previous week.

Alibaba reported non-GAAP earnings of $1.73 per ADS, beating estimates by 16.9%. Revenue came in at $32.6 billion, slightly below expectations. In RMB terms, earnings rose 23% and revenue grew 7% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in domestic e-commerce (Taobao and Tmall), cloud services, and international commerce.

BABA shares declined 1.49% from the previous week’s closing price.

Walmart posted strong Q1 results, beating earnings and revenue estimates, with total revenue up 2.5% year-over-year and global e-commerce sales up 22%. However, the company warned that upcoming US tariffs will force price hikes by late May, potentially affecting sales. Despite the uncertainty, Walmart maintained its full-year outlook, projecting 3–4% revenue growth and adjusted EPS of $2.50–$2.60.

WMT shares increased by 1.57% compared to the previous week.

Conclusion

Last week’s data painted a mixed but informative picture of the global economy. While US inflation remained contained and retail sales showed resilience, rising producer prices and inflation expectations suggest cost pressures may re-emerge. The UK and Australian labour markets showed signs of stability, though the UK continues to face declining vacancies. Corporate earnings added nuance, with Cisco outperforming, Alibaba delivering mixed results, and Walmart maintaining a cautious outlook amid tariff concerns. Market responses were broadly positive, with strong gains in equities, modest currency shifts, and notable movements in commodities, especially gold’s decline and oil’s modest rebound.