The Nasdaq 100 Index, which tracks major U.S. tech companies, has been on a strong upward run, rising over 37% since early April and hitting new record highs. This surge is mainly driven by excitement around artificial intelligence (AI), with companies like Nvidia and Palantir leading the way.
From a technical perspective, the rally has been supported by strong price patterns and indicators that suggest momentum is still positive—though some signs are emerging that the pace may slow. Key resistance levels (where the Index could face selling pressure) are at 22,514 and higher, while important support levels (where buyers might step in) include 22,070 and 21,353.
This Friday, markets will also be watching two important economic reports: Canada’s monthly GDP and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, which could influence investor sentiment heading into the weekend.
The Index of the 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange has been rallying since bottoming at 16,313.88 on April 7, gaining more than 37% from trough to peak, supported by a combination of technical and fundamental factors. The initial breakout was triggered by a failure swing reversal pattern, where the intermediate low at 17,588.02 held above the prior trough. This was followed by a decisive move above the previous peak at 19,238.83, confirming a bullish continuation.
Additionally, a bullish crossover occurred as the 20-period EMA moved above the 50-period EMA — a “Golden Cross” signal that further validated upward momentum. Price action also emerged above both the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reinforcing the trend strength.
Momentum indicators are also constructive. The Momentum Oscillator continues to print above the 100 level, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding well above the 50 line, both indicative of sustained buying interest.
That said, emerging negative divergence between price and momentum indicators suggests underlying strength may be fading. This divergence introduces the risk of a short-term consolidation phase or corrective pullback, even as the broader trend remains intact.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the bulls maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
22,514.47: The initial resistance level is determined at 22,514.47, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 22,070.96 to 21,353.31.
23,232.12: The second resistance level is set at 23,232.12, which mirrors the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 22,070.96 to 21,353.31.
23,949.77: The third resistance level is seen at 23,949.77.
24,393.28: An additional price target has been established at 24,393.28, which reflects the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 22,070.96 to 21,353.31.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
22,070.96: The initial support level is seen at 22,070.96, corresponding to the high point from June 11.
21,353.31: The second support level is estimated at 21,353.31, representing the low point from June 23.
20,251.68: The third support level is identified at 20,251.68, reflecting the daily high marked on May 8.
18,670.93: An additional downside target is 18,670.93, mirroring the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement drawn from 16,313.88 to 22,514.47.
Fundamentals
The Nasdaq 100 Index hit a new record high this week, climbing 32% since April thanks to strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Leading the charge is Nvidia, which surged to an all-time high and became the world’s most valuable company with a market cap of over $3.7 trillion.
Palantir is the top-performing stock in the Index this year, jumping over 87% due to booming demand for its AI and commercial solutions. Other major gainers include Zscaler, Micron, MercadoLibre, CrowdStrike, and Netflix—most of which are growing thanks to strong earnings and rising demand for tech and AI services.
Meanwhile, some companies in the Index have struggled. The Trade Desk, Lululemon, Apple, and Marvell Technology are among those down more than 20% this year.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq 100’s impressive rally has been fueled by strong interest in AI-driven companies and solid technical momentum. While the overall trend remains positive, early signs of slowing strength suggest a pause or pullback could be ahead. Investors will be watching key economic data from Canada and the U.S. this Friday, which could influence short-term market direction. For now, the uptrend remains intact—but staying alert to potential shifts in sentiment or momentum will be important going forward.
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