Navigating Uncertainty: Inflation Pressures, Consumer Shifts, and Market Adjustments 

Last week’s data reflected ongoing economic shifts, with inflationary pressures persisting, consumer activity showing signs of strain, and energy markets adjusting to supply dynamics. Financial markets responded with mixed currency movements, steady equity gains, and rising demand for safe-haven assets. Corporate earnings offered a varied outlook, highlighting resilience in some sectors while others faced headwinds. As investors digest these developments, attention turns to upcoming indicators for further insight into economic momentum.

Wednesday, February 12

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.5% in January, bringing annual inflation to 3.0%. Shelter costs increased 0.4%, energy 1.1%, and food 0.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% for the month and 3.3% over the year. Notable increases were seen in motor vehicle insurance, used cars, and medical care, while apparel and household furnishings declined. Over the past year, food prices rose 2.5%.

The EURUSD exchange rate increased by 0.3%.

17:30 – USA: Crude Oil Inventories (USD)

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day for the week ending February 7, 2025, with refineries operating at 85.0% capacity. Gasoline production increased while distillate fuel production declined. Crude oil imports fell to 6.3 million barrels per day but remained above last year’s levels over the past four weeks.

Commercial crude oil inventories rose by 4.1 million barrels to 427.9 million, 4% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories fell by 3.0 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories saw a slight increase but remained 11% lower than normal.

Crude oil declined by 2.6%.

09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
The UK’s real GDP grew 0.1% in Q4 2024, following no growth in the previous quarter and 1.4% year-over-year. In December, GDP rose 0.4%, driven by services and production.

The GBPUSD exchange rate gained 0.9%.

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% in January 2025 to 106.8 points, while annual inflation stood at 0.4%, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The decline was driven by lower electricity, air transport, and clothing prices, partly due to seasonal sales. Meanwhile, hotel prices, private transport hire, and car insurance premiums increased.
The USDCHF registered a 1.12% decline.

15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.4% in January 2025, following a 0.5% increase in December and 0.2% in November. On an unadjusted basis, PPI climbed 3.5% over the past year. The increase was driven by a 0.3% rise in final demand services and a 0.6% gain in final demand goods. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, PPI rose 0.3% in January and 3.4% year-over-year.

The EURUSD edged up 0.68%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

In the week ending February 8, initial jobless claims fell to 213,000, down 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level of 220,000. The four-week moving average declined to 216,000. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2 percent for the week ending February 1.

The USDJPY declined by 1.09%

15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
U.S. retail and food services sales fell 0.9% in January 2025 to $723.9 billion but remained 4.2% higher than a year ago. Retail trade sales declined 1.2% from December but were 4.0% higher than last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers saw a 6.4% annual increase, while food services and drinking places rose 5.4% from January 2024.

The EURUSD exchange rate advanced by 0.3%.

1. Crude Oil
   Crude oil prices decreased by 0.66% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   Brent was down 0.25% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   Gold The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 0.77% weekly increase
4. Silver
   XAGUSD increased by 1.05% from the last week

1. S&P 500 increased by 1.41%
2. DJIA was up by 0.49%
3. NASDAQ 100 advanced 2.99%

1. Dominari Holdings Inc. (DOMH) 270.81%
2. INLIF Limited (INLF) 233.27%
3. Moleculin Biotech, Inc. (MBRX) 173.18%

1. Solaris Resources Inc. (SLSR) -97.35%
2. Bellevue Life Sciences Acquisition Corp. (BLAC) -73.17%
3. Pliant Therapeutics, Inc. (PLRX) -60.98%

Monday, February 10: MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)

Tuesday, February 11: AIG (American International Group, Inc.)

Tuesday, February 11: BP (BP p.l.c.)

Tuesday, February 11: KO (The Coca-Cola Company)

Tuesday, February 11: LYFT (Lyft, Inc.)

McDonald’s reported Q4 2024 earnings with an EPS of $2.83, matching analysts’ expectations. The company’s trailing EPS stands at $11.39 with a P/E ratio of 26.99. Earnings are projected to grow 5.37% next year, rising from $11.73 to $12.36 per share.

MCD shares jumped by 4.84%.

American International Group (AIG) reported quarterly earnings with an EPS of $1.30, falling short of analysts’ expectations of $1.33 by $0.03. The company recorded a positive return on equity of 8.63% but a negative net margin of 6.19%.

AIG shares declined by 0.47%.

BP reported Q4 2024 earnings with an EPS of $0.44, missing the consensus estimate of $0.56 by $0.12. The company has a trailing EPS of $0.95 and a P/E ratio of 36.85. Earnings are projected to grow 5.37% next year, rising from $3.35 to $3.53 per share.

BP shares jumped by 8.46%.

Coca-Cola reported Q4 2024 earnings on February 11, 2025, with an EPS of $0.55, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $0.51 by $0.04. The company has a trailing EPS of $2.42 and a P/E ratio of 28.45. Earnings are projected to grow 3.16% next year, increasing from $2.85 to $2.94 per share.

KO shares rose by 7.88%.

Lyft reported earnings of $0.30 per share for the last quarter, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $0.23 by 30.43%. The next earnings release is expected on May 6, 2025, with projected earnings of $0.20 per share, representing a 33.33% year-over-year increase.

LYFT shares fell by 5.22%.

Last week’s economic data and market performance highlighted ongoing shifts in inflation, consumer activity, and corporate earnings. While inflationary pressures persisted, retail sales showed signs of strain, and energy markets continued to adjust. Financial markets responded with mixed currency movements, steady equity gains, and increased demand for commodities like gold and silver. Corporate earnings presented a mixed outlook, with some companies exceeding expectations while others faced challenges. As investors assess these developments, attention now turns to upcoming economic indicators for further insights into market trends and economic momentum.