S&P 500’s Record Run Amid Key Economic Events 

The global financial landscape remains in sharp focus as markets navigate a dynamic mix of technical signals and fundamental developments. With high-impact economic events on the horizon, including key PMI releases across major economies and the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, investors are closely monitoring potential shifts in sentiment and market direction. Meanwhile, the S&P 500’s recent record-breaking performance underscores strong bullish momentum driven by a confluence of technical factors and evolving economic narratives. As traders assess critical resistance and support levels, upcoming data releases and geopolitical developments will be instrumental in shaping the next phase of market trends.

Friday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)
Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: French Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)
Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: German Flash Services PMI (EUR)
Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)
Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)
Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)
Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Since reaching a low of 5770.25 on December 13, the S&P 500 Index has rebounded, supported by a confluence of bullish technical signals. The initial reversal was prompted by the emergence of a Hammer candlestick pattern, which indicated a potential trend shift. This was subsequently reinforced by a “Golden Cross” formation, as the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed above the 50-period EMA, further affirming the bullish outlook. As a result, the index extended its gains, reaching a new all-time high of 6123.90, signaling renewed buyer dominance.
Momentum indicators also point to strengthening bullish conditions. The Momentum Oscillator has surpassed the critical 100 threshold, suggesting continued upward pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably above the neutral 50 level, highlighting sustained buying interest. These technical factors collectively indicate the potential for further upside in the near term, provided market conditions remain supportive.

Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
6178.28: The initial resistance level is established at 6178.28, which mirrors the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high, 6022.43, to the swing low, 5770.25.
6328.82: The second price target is set at 6328.82, representing the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
6430.46: The third price objective is observed at 6430.46, corresponding with the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high, 6022.43, to the swing low, 5770.25.
6838.48: An additional upside target is projected at 6838.48, mirroring the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing high, 6022.43, to the swing low, 5770.25.

Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
6101.24: The initial support level is estimated at 6101.24, corresponding to the all-time high formed on December 6.
6022.43: The second support level is identified at 6022.43, representing the high point marked on January 6.
5927.10: The third support level is seen at 5927.10, reflecting the weekly Pivot Point, PP, estimated using the standard methodology.
5839.10: An additional downside target is 5839.10, mirroring the weekly support, S1, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, driven by optimism around corporate earnings and investor reactions to President Donald Trump’s comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Trump’s call for lower interest rates and oil prices was welcomed by markets, though concerns about potential tariffs persist. All 11 S&P sectors posted gains, with healthcare and industrials leading, while technology saw modest growth after its recent AI-fueled rally. Meanwhile, strong earnings reports from companies like GE Aerospace and Elevance boosted sentiment, while disappointing forecasts from Electronic Arts and American Airlines weighed on their shares. Investors now await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision next week, with expectations of no immediate rate changes despite Trump’s pressure.

As markets continue to digest a blend of technical and fundamental factors, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The S&P 500’s recent record-breaking rally reflects robust bullish sentiment, though key resistance and support levels will be crucial in determining the next directional move. Meanwhile, upcoming high-impact economic events, particularly PMI releases and the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, will provide further clarity on global economic conditions. While investor enthusiasm persists, potential headwinds, including geopolitical uncertainties and central bank policies, warrant a balanced approach in the near term.