The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for April 21-25, 2025 

This week features a series of high-impact economic events across major economies, offering critical insights into global growth momentum, inflation dynamics, and central bank policy outlooks. Flash PMI data from France, Germany, the UK, and the US will reveal how business activity in both manufacturing and services is faring amid geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting demand. US unemployment claims and flash PMIs will be closely watched for signs of labor market strength and price pressures, while retail sales from the UK and Canada will help gauge consumer resilience. The week also includes a packed earnings calendar, with market heavyweights like Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and Merck set to report.

High Impact Economic Events

Wednesday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Wednesday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: French Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Wednesday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Wednesday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Wednesday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Wednesday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Wednesday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Wednesday16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Wednesday, April 23

10:15 am – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

France’s manufacturing sector showed signs of nearing stabilization in March, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to a 26-month high of 48.5, up from 45.8 in February. While still below the 50.0 threshold, the pace of contraction slowed markedly. Consumer goods producers led the improvement, reporting growth in output and new orders. Business confidence reached a nine-month high, though it remained cautious.

Economists anticipate a contractionary reading of 47.9.

10:15 am – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

France’s services sector remained in decline during March, marking its worst quarterly performance since late 2023. The Services PMI rose to 47.9 from 45.3, indicating a slower but still marked contraction.

Economists predict a contraction rate of 47.6.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Germany’s manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery in March, with output rising for the first time since May 2022. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed to a 31-month high of 48.3, supported by new order growth—particularly in intermediate goods. Business optimism rose to a three-year high, boosted by expectations of increased infrastructure investment.

Economists predict the contraction will continue, with an expected reading of 47.5.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Germany’s services sector expanded for the fourth straight month in March, though at a slower pace, with the Services PMI easing to 50.9. Business activity rose modestly despite a faster decline in new orders—especially from overseas—amid uncertainty and a stronger euro. Firms reduced backlogs significantly but remained optimistic about the outlook, supported by expectations of fiscal stimulus and innovation. Input and output price pressures eased to five-month lows, while employment grew modestly across the sector.

Analysts expect ongoing expansion, forecasting a reading of 50.3.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

UK manufacturing activity deteriorated in March, with the PMI falling to 44.9. Output and new orders declined at the fastest pace since late 2023, while business confidence dropped to a two-and-a-half-year low. Firms cut jobs and scaled back inventories amid rising costs and policy uncertainty.

Analysts expect a contractionary reading of 44.0.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

UK services sector growth picked up in March, with the PMI rising to 52.5, the highest in seven months. New orders increased for the first time this year, helped by a modest rebound in export demand. However, employment continued to decline due to rising payroll costs. Input price inflation eased slightly, but overall business optimism remained subdued amid concerns over household budgets, corporate risk aversion, and global trade tensions.

Economists anticipate a growth figure of 51.4.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

US manufacturing growth stalled in March, with the PMI slipping to 50.2 from 52.7. Production declined for the first time in three months, as new orders rose only modestly amid tariff-related uncertainty. Employment was flat after four months of growth, and cost inflation surged to its highest since August 2022, driven largely by tariffs. While export demand stabilized, overall confidence in the outlook weakened for a second straight month.

Economists project a contractionary reading of 49.3.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

US service sector growth accelerated in March, with the PMI rising to 54.4—its highest in 2025 so far—driven by stronger domestic demand and improved weather. However, business confidence dipped to its second-lowest level since late 2022, weighed down by concerns over tariffs and government policies. Cost inflation hit an 18-month high, largely due to rising labor and supplier costs, but firms struggled to fully pass these increases to clients due to competitive pressure. Employment rose modestly, while backlogs saw only a slight uptick.

Economists project a reading of 52.9.

Thursday, April 24

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

US initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 215,000 in the week ending April 12. The four-week average declined slightly to 220,750. Meanwhile, continuing claims rose by 41,000 to 1.89 million, with the insured unemployment rate holding steady at 1.2%.

Friday, April 25

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

Retail Salesshow the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.

The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.

UK retail sales volumes rose by 1.0% in February 2025, following a revised 1.4% increase in January. Growth was driven by strong non-food store sales across all sub-sectors, while supermarket sales dipped after a robust January. Over the three months to February, sales volumes increased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.0% year-on-year.

Economists expect a decrease of 0.4%.

15:30 – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Canada Retail Sales show changes in the value of goods sold in retail stores in the specified month compared to the previous month. The indicator is calculated based on statistics from several thousand retail stores, and the data is then extrapolated to the whole country.

The indicator evaluates consumer activity and inflation. The indicator growth can have a positive effect on CAD quotes.

Canadian retail sales fell 0.6% in January to C$69.36 billion, driven by weaker motor vehicle and parts sales. In volume terms, sales dropped 1.1%.

A preliminary estimate suggests a further 0.4% decline in February.

Company Earnings (April 21 – 25)

Tuesday, April 22: GE (GE Aerospace)

Tuesday, April 22: TSLA (Tesla Inc)

Wednesday, April 23: T (AT&T Inc)

Thursday, April 24: GOOGL (Alphabet Inc.)

Thursday, April 24: INTC (Intel Corporation)

Thursday, April 24: MRK (Merck & Co., Inc.)

Conclusion

With a packed lineup of economic data and corporate earnings ahead, this week offers fresh clarity on the health of global economies and the trajectory of monetary policy. Flash PMI figures from key markets will shed light on business activity amid a backdrop of elevated geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainty, while retail sales data from the UK and Canada will help assess consumer strength. US jobless claims and earnings from major firms like Tesla, Alphabet, and Merck will further shape investor sentiment. Markets are likely to remain sensitive to surprises as policymakers and businesses navigate a shifting economic landscape.