This week features several high-impact economic events and company earnings reports that could influence global markets. Key data releases include U.S. PPI and CPI, UK inflation and GDP, and Australia’s employment change. Investors will closely monitor these indicators, along with U.S. unemployment claims and retail sales, for signs of economic momentum or slowdown. Additionally, major financial institutions such as Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Bank of America will release earnings, providing further market direction.
High Impact Economic Events
Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Tuesday, January 14
15:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% in November, with a 3.0% annual increase. Goods drove the rise, up 0.7%, while services rose 0.2%. Excluding food, energy, and trade, PPI increased 0.1% for the month and 3.5% annually. Key gains included food and corn, while oil seeds and crude petroleum fell.
Analysts expect a reading at 0.4%.
Wednesday, January 15
09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)
The most common method for assessing inflation is the annual inflation rate, which looks at price changes over a 12-month period by comparing the current month’s prices with those from the same month the previous year. CPIH is the most comprehensive inflation measure, including the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) plus owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax.
CPIH rose 3.5% annually in November 2024, up from 3.2%, while CPI increased 2.6%. Monthly, CPIH rose 0.2% and CPI 0.1%, driven by transport and housing. Core CPIH rose 4.4%, and core CPI 3.5%. Goods inflation turned positive at 0.4%, with services steady.
Analysts anticipate that the upcoming release will indicate a reading of 2.6%.
15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes like CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, covering over 90% of the U.S. population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.
In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.3%, with a 12-month increase of 2.7%. Shelter accounted for 40% of the monthly rise, while food rose 0.4% and energy increased 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, CPI also rose 0.3%, driven by higher prices for shelter, used cars, medical care, and recreation. Over the year, core CPI rose 3.3%, while energy prices fell 3.2%.
Analysts anticipate a reading of 0.3%.
Thursday, January 16
02:30 am – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
The Australia Employment Change tracks the monthly variation in the number of officially employed individuals in the country. An increase in employment indicates a stronger labor market and can positively influence the value of the Australian dollar.
Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in November, with 36,000 jobs added. The participation rate dropped slightly to 67.0%, and hours worked saw a minor decline. Underemployment decreased to 6.1%, while the underutilization rate fell to 10.0%. Trend data indicates a tight labor market with low unemployment and high participation.
Analysts project an increase of 14,500 jobs in the upcoming employment report.
09:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures a country’s economic size and health over time, typically quarterly or annually. It can be calculated by totaling the value of goods and services produced, income earned, or spending. Household spending is the largest component, making up about two-thirds of GDP. Growth in GDP signals an expanding economy.
Monthly real GDP fell by 0.1% in October 2024, following a similar decline in September. However, GDP grew 0.1% in the three months to October, driven by a 0.1% rise in services and 0.4% growth in construction, partially offset by a 0.3% drop in production output.
Economists expect the January report to indicate a 0.2% growth.
15:30 – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
The Retail Sales m/m reflects the change in U.S. retail sales from one month to the next. This indicator is used to assess inflation, and an increase in retail sales can positively influence the value of the U.S. dollar.
U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.7% in November 2024, totaling $724.6 billion, and increased 3.8% year-over-year. Sales from September to November were up 2.9% compared to the same period in 2023. Retail trade sales grew 0.9% monthly and 4.1% annually, with motor vehicle and parts dealers up 6.5% and nonstore retailers up 9.8% from November 2023.
Economists expect a 0.6% reading.
15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.
In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 211,000.
Analysts anticipate a figure of 210,000.
Friday, January 17
09:00 – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)
Retail Sales show the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.
The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.
UK retail sales rose 0.2% in November 2024 after a 0.7% fall in October. Food and non-food sales increased, while clothing sales dropped 2.6%. Online sales fell 4.3%, with online spending at its lowest share since February 2024.
Economists predict a modest increase of 0.4%.
Company Earnings (January 13 – 17)
Wednesday, January 15: C (Citigroup Inc)
Wednesday, January 15: JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Wednesday, January 15: WFC (Wells Fargo & Company)
Thursday, January 16: BAC (Bank of America Corp)
Thursday, January 16: MS (Morgan Stanley)
Conclusion
In conclusion, this week’s high-impact economic events and earnings reports offer crucial insights into inflation, consumer activity, and labor market conditions across major economies. Key data, including U.S. PPI, CPI, and retail sales, as well as UK GDP and inflation figures, will help shape market sentiment. Meanwhile, corporate earnings from leading financial institutions will provide additional direction for investors. Markets are likely to remain sensitive to these developments as they seek clarity on the global economic outlook.