The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for January 20 – 24, 2025 

This week brings a mix of critical economic indicators and corporate earnings that could shape market sentiment. Highlights include inflation updates, labor market data, and PMI releases across major economies, offering a glimpse into growth trajectories and policy impacts. Corporate earnings from key players like Netflix and Johnson & Johnson add another layer of insight into sectoral and macroeconomic dynamics as markets navigate the start of 2025.

Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Tuesday 23:45 (GMT+2) – New Zealand: CPI q/q (NZD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Friday 10:15 am (GMT+2) – France: French Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Friday 10:30 am (GMT+2) – Germany: German Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Friday 11:30 am (GMT+2) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Friday 16:45 (GMT+2) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

09:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

It reflects the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits during the given month.

An increase in the claimant count is a signal of weakness in the labor market and may have a negative impact on the GDP quotes.

In November 2024, unemployment benefit claims in the UK increased slightly by 0.3 thousand, reaching a total of 1.769 million. This came after a revised drop of 10.9 thousand in the prior month and was far below the anticipated rise of 28.2 thousand projected by the market.

Analysts expect an increase of 13,000 benefit claims.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

In November 2024, Canada’s inflation rate edged down to 1.9% from 2.0% in October, staying below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.

Analysts anticipate that the upcoming release will indicate a decrease of 0.7%.

23:45 – New Zealand: CPI q/q (NZD)

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased by New Zealand households.

In the September 2024 quarter, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6%. Key drivers included a 12.2% rise in local authority rates, an 8.4% increase in vegetable prices, and a 17.0% jump in pharmaceutical products.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 0.5%.

15:30 – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Canada’s Retail Sales track the month-to-month changes in the value of goods sold by retail stores. This measurement is based on data collected from thousands of retail outlets, which is then scaled up to represent the entire country’s retail activity.

Retail sales in Canada rose by 0.6% in October 2024, slightly below the flash estimate. Growth was driven by a 2.0% increase at automotive dealerships, while gas station receipts fell 0.5%.

Analysts project an increase of 0.1% in the upcoming report.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

In the week ending January 11, 2025, initial unemployment claims in the US increased by 14,000 to 217,000, following a revised figure of 203,000 the prior week.

Economists expect unemployment claims to increase by 220,000.

Tentative – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy aims to achieve price stability, which is crucial for supporting economic activity. Price stability helps individuals and firms make informed decisions about consumption and investment, ensuring efficient resource allocation. To this end, the Bank set a 2% inflation target (CPI) in 2013 and remains committed to reaching this goal as soon as possible.

At its latest meeting, the Bank of Japan maintained its key interest rate at 0.25%, citing moderate economic recovery and improved corporate profits.

Economists expect a rate hike of 0.25%

10:15 am – France: French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

France’s manufacturing PMI fell to 41.9 in December 2024, its lowest since May 2020. Weak demand led to sharp drops in production, inventories, and employment, with firms cutting prices to boost sales amid pessimism over future demand.

Analysts project a contractionary PMI reading of 42.9.

10:15 am – France: French Flash Services PMI (EUR)

France’s service sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in December 2024, with the PMI rising to 49.3 from November’s 46.9, signaling a slower downturn.

Economists forecast a slight uptick in the index to 49.5.

10:30 am – Germany: German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Germany’s manufacturing sector ended 2024 on a weak note, with the PMI falling to 42.5 in December, indicating accelerated declines in output and new orders.

Analysts anticipate a contractionary figure of 42.9.

10:30 am – Germany: German Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Germany’s service sector grew slightly in December 2024, with the PMI rising to 51.2. Growth was driven by clearing backlogs as new business fell for the fourth month. Employment declined modestly while rising wages pushed costs and service prices to their highest in eight months. Demand remained weak overall.

Economists anticipate the PMI to come in at 51.1, signaling slight growth in Germany’s service sector.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

The UK manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.0 in December 2024, marking an 11-month low as output, new orders, and employment declined further. Rising costs, weak demand, and supply chain issues weighed on the sector, with optimism hitting a two-year low.

Analysts anticipate the UK manufacturing PMI to come in at 46.9, indicating a further deepening of the sector’s contraction.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

The UK services PMI rose slightly to 51.1 in December 2024, showing marginal growth. Employment fell at its fastest pace since January 2021, while weak demand and rising costs dampened optimism. Input price inflation hit an eight-month high, driving the steepest price increases in six months.

Economists forecast the UK services PMI to come in at 50.8, indicating marginal growth and ongoing challenges in the sector.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The US manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in December 2024, with output and new orders contracting at the fastest pace in 18 months. Input costs surged, driving price increases, while employment rose modestly amid cautious optimism for 2025.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

The US services PMI rose to 56.8 in December 2024, the highest in 33 months. Output, new orders, and employment increased while cost inflation eased. Business confidence hit an 18-month high, driven by post-election optimism and expectations of favorable policies.

Monday, January 20: NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)

Wednesday, January 22: JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

Thursday, January 23: GE (GE Aerospace)

Friday, January 24: AXP (American Express Company)

As the week unfolds, the focus remains on critical economic data and corporate earnings, offering insights into global economic momentum and market sentiment. With PMI readings, inflation reports, and labor market updates on the agenda, alongside earnings from major corporations, markets will closely monitor these events to gauge economic stability and growth prospects heading into 2025.