The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for June 23 – 27, 2025

A busy week is on the horizon for global markets as geopolitical tensions continue. Several important economic indicators are expected to be released, particularly a series of flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from Europe, the UK, and the US. Additionally, key inflation and GDP figures will be published for Canada, Australia, and the United States.

These data points will provide fresh insights into the health of the manufacturing and services sectors, helping to gauge the strength of consumer demand, pricing pressures, and broader economic momentum. With central banks closely watching for signs of inflation persistence or economic slowdown, this week’s data could influence monetary policy expectations and market sentiment globally.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Monday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Monday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Monday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Monday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Monday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Monday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Monday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Monday, June 23

10:15 am – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

In May, France’s manufacturing sector showed further signs of recovery. Output rose for a second month, hiring picked up for the first time in two years, and business confidence hit its highest level since early 2022.

While demand remained weak, new orders declined at the slowest pace in three years. To boost sales, firms cut prices more sharply, helped by lower input costs. The main PMI rose to 49.8, just below the 50 mark, signaling near-stable conditions.

Analysts expect a reading of 49.8.

10:15 am – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

In May, France’s service sector continued to shrink, though at a slower pace. The HCOB Services PMI rose to 48.9 in May, up from 47.3 in April, marking the mildest contraction so far this year — but still below the 50 level that signals growth.

Weak domestic demand remained a key issue, with new orders falling for a ninth month. To boost sales, firms cut prices at the sharpest rate since early 2021 despite rising costs from wages and purchases. Business confidence also dropped to a five-year low amid economic and geopolitical concerns.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 49.2.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

In May, Germany’s manufacturing sector continued its slow recovery. Output rose for a third month, driven by stronger export demand, though domestic orders declined.

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, slightly down from April and still below the 50 mark, signaling contraction. Job cuts and purchasing declines eased while falling input costs led to lower prices. Business confidence improved to its highest since early 2022.

Projections show a likely contractionary score of 48.9

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Germany’s service sector continued to shrink, with May’s PMI falling to 47.1, the lowest since late 2022. Weak demand and uncertainty drove the decline, while job growth slowed.

Costs and prices rose at a weaker pace, and business confidence improved slightly but remained low.

Expectations are for a 47.8 reading, suggesting the sector remains under pressure.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

The UK manufacturing sector remained under pressure, with May’s PMI rising slightly to 46.4 but still signaling contraction for the eighth month in a row. Output, new orders, and exports continued to fall due to weak demand, trade uncertainty, and rising wage costs.

Smaller manufacturers were hit hardest, seeing sharp drops in both production and confidence. While input and selling price inflation eased, supply chains stayed under strain. There were small signs of improvement, but overall conditions remain challenging.

Market forecasts point to a PMI reading of 46.9, suggesting continued contraction.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

The UK’s services sector — covering industries like hospitality, finance, and transport — grew slightly in May, with the S&P Global Services PMI rising to 50.9. That’s up from 49.0 in April, indicating a return to growth after a brief contraction. The improvement was driven by better business confidence and fewer concerns about US tariffs.

However, demand remained soft, with new orders falling for the fourth time in five months. Many companies are still cutting jobs, largely due to rising wage costs. Despite these challenges, business optimism surged to a seven-month high, as firms expressed hope for stronger economic conditions in the year ahead.

Economists predict continued growth in the service sector, at 51.2.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

In May, U.S. manufacturing activity picked up, with the PMI rising to 52.0, the strongest since February. Growth was mainly driven by companies stockpiling raw materials ahead of expected tariff-related price hikes and supply disruptions.

New domestic orders rose, but actual production dipped slightly. Input costs surged due to tariffs, leading to the highest increase in selling prices since late 2022. Delivery delays also hit their worst level in over two years.

Despite ongoing uncertainty, business confidence improved to a three-month high as hopes for more stable trade conditions grew.

Analysts expect a growth reading of 51.1.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

The US services sector saw stronger growth in May, with the S&P Global Services PMI rising to 53.7, up from 50.8 in April. This signals a solid rebound in business activity after a sluggish spring.

More customer orders and improved business confidence helped boost hiring, though not enough to keep up with growing backlogs. However, the mood among companies remained cautious, with optimism still below normal levels.

A major concern was inflation. Tariffs and higher supplier costs pushed input prices to their highest in nearly two years, leading to the biggest jump in service prices since August 2022. These rising costs may delay any interest rate cuts, according to analysts.

Forecasts indicate a Services PMI reading of 52.9

Tuesday, June 24

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time . It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

Canada’s inflation slowed in April, with the CPI rising 1.7% year over year, down from 2.3% in March. The drop was mainly due to lower energy prices, especially gasoline, which fell 18.1%.

Excluding energy, inflation rose 2.9%, driven by higher food and travel costs. Grocery prices rose 3.8%, and travel tour prices jumped 6.7%. Overall prices fell 0.1% from March, signaling easing inflation with continued pressure on essentials.

Market expectations point to an uptick near 0.5%.

Wednesday, June 25

04:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

Australia’s inflation held steady at 2.4% in April. Food, housing, and recreation were the main drivers, with grocery prices up 3.1% and rents rising 5.0%.

Fuel prices fell 12% due to lower oil costs, while electricity prices also declined. Overall, inflation remains stable, but essentials like food and housing continue to rise.

Analysts anticipate a reading of 2.4%.

Thursday, June 26

15:30 – USA: Final GDP q/q (USD)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced, minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.

The US economy shrank slightly in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP falling 0.2 percent, down from 2.4 percent growth in the previous quarter. The decline was mainly due to higher imports and lower government spending, partly offset by gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

Economists anticipate a reading of -0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions.

US jobless claims fell to 245,000 in mid-June, but the four-week average rose to its highest level since August 2023, hinting at a gradual rise in layoffs. Ongoing unemployment claims held steady at 1.3 percent, with the number of people receiving benefits slightly down.

Economists expect unemployment claims to increase by 247,000.

Friday, June 27

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Canada’s economy grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace from late 2024. Growth was mainly driven by goods exports and business inventory buildup, while rising imports and a slowdown in home resales held things back.

Economists anticipate a flat reading.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In April, U.S. personal income rose by 0.8%, helped by higher wages and government benefits. After taxes, disposable income also increased 0.8%, while consumer spending grew just 0.2%, mostly on services.

Americans saved more, with the savings rate rising to 4.9%. Inflation remained modest, with prices up 0.1% from March and 2.1% over the past year. Excluding food and energy, inflation was slightly higher at 2.5%.

Economists expect the reading to be 0.1%.

Company Earnings (June 23 – 27)

Tuesday, June 24: FDX (FedEx Corporation.)

Wednesday, June 25: MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)

Thursday, June 26: NKE (NIKE, Inc.)

Conclusion

This week’s packed calendar of economic releases and earnings reports will give markets a clearer picture of where global growth, inflation, and labor trends are headed. With key data from major economies—including PMI surveys, inflation updates, GDP figures, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—investors and policymakers alike will be watching closely for signals on interest rates and the broader economic outlook. Volatility may increase as markets digest this influx of information and adjust expectations for the second half of 2025.