The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for June 30 – July 4, 2025

The first week of July brings a packed schedule of key economic indicators from China, the US, and Switzerland—each with the potential to move markets. Investors will be watching closely as fresh data on manufacturing, services, employment, and inflation provide insight into global economic momentum.

From China, the latest PMI reading will offer an update on factory activity after two months of contraction. In the US, traders will parse the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, ADP and Nonfarm Payroll reports, and JOLTS job openings for signs of labor market strength or weakness. Switzerland’s inflation data will also be under the spotlight, especially amid subdued price trends.

Several major U.S. companies will report earnings mid-week, adding another layer of potential market catalysts.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNH)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+3) – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Monday, June 30

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNH)

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

China’s factory activity shrank for the second month in a row in May. The manufacturing index came in at 49.5—slightly better than April’s 49.0 but still below 50, which signals a slowdown.

Economists expect a reading of 49.6.

Tuesday, July 1

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

US manufacturing shrank for a third month in May, with the PMI at 48.5. New orders, production, and jobs continued to decline while prices rose and imports dropped sharply. Only a few sectors, like petroleum and machinery, showed growth, highlighting ongoing weakness in the industry.

Market expectations are for a subdued 48.8, below the growth threshold.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

It’s a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In April, U.S. job openings stayed flat at 7.4 million, with hiring and separations also little changed. Quit and layoff rates remained stable, indicating a steady job market.

Markets are looking for a 7.45 million print.

Wednesday, July 2

15:15 – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Changetracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

Employment growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In May, the US private sector added 37,000 jobs, showing a slowdown in hiring, according to ADP. Despite the weaker job growth, annual pay rose by 4.5%, with strong wage gains for both people staying in their jobs and those changing roles.

Analysts project that private-sector employers will show an increase in payrolls by 105,000 positions in June.

Thursday, July 3

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland. It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

In May 2025, consumer prices in Switzerland rose slightly by 0.1% from the previous month, mainly due to higher costs for rent and holiday travel. However, prices were down 0.1% compared to a year ago, marking a small annual decline. Some food items like fruits became more expensive, while airfares, heating oil, and some lodging costs fell.

Economists expect the prices of goods and services to increase by 0.1%.

15:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

In May 2025, the US added 139,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%. Job gains were seen in health care and hospitality, but federal government jobs declined. Overall, the labor market showed modest growth with little change in unemployment.

Analysts project a 120,000 increase in the US nonfarm payroll employment.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the US service sector for the reporting month. It is derived from a survey of supply executives in the services sector. Readings above 50 can have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In May, U.S. services activity slightly contracted for the first time in nearly a year, with the Services PMI at 49.9%. New orders fell while prices rose sharply. Employment edged up, but businesses reported uncertainty and cautious planning amid rising costs and tariff concerns.

Analysts expect an increase in services activity, predicting the PMI will rise to 50.8.

Company Earnings (June 30 – July 4)

Tuesday, July 1: STZ (Constellation Brands, Inc.)

Tuesday, July 1: MSM (MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.)

Wednesday, July 2: FIZZ (National Beverage Corp.)

Conclusion

With a full slate of high-impact data releases and key earnings reports, the first week of July could bring meaningful volatility across global markets. From China’s factory activity to US employment and inflation trends, each report will offer clues about the health of the world’s major economies. As investors digest these numbers, expect market sentiment to shift quickly in response to any surprises—making this a critical week to stay informed and prepared.