The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for June 9 – 13, 2025

Markets are set for a busy week with several high-impact economic releases from the UK and the US that could influence currency and equity market direction. UK labor market data kicks things off, followed by closely watched US CPI figures midweek. On Thursday, traders will digest UK GDP, US PPI, and jobless claims—all ahead of Friday’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys. These events come at a time of heightened sensitivity to growth, inflation, and policy signals across both economies.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

Wednesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

Friday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

Tuesday, June 10

9:00 am – UK: Claimant Count Change (GBP)

The Claimant Count Change indicates how many individuals have started claiming unemployment benefits in a specific month.

A rise in the claimant count signifies a labor market experiencing a downturn and might negatively impact the GDP.

UK labor market data shows signs of cooling, with payrolled employees down 33,000 in April and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. The Claimant Count increased to 1.726 million, while vacancies fell for the 34th straight quarter. Despite the weakness, wage growth remained firm, with regular pay up 5.6% year-on-year.

Economists anticipate a reading of 9,500.

Wednesday, June 11

15:30 – USA: CPI m/m (USD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, reflecting spending patterns of urban consumers and wage earners. It includes indexes like CPI-U for all urban consumers and CPI-W for urban wage earners, covering over 90% of the US population. CPI tracks inflation by comparing current prices to a reference base period.

US consumer prices rose 0.2% in April, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in March. Annual inflation slowed slightly to 2.3%, the lowest since early 2021. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% on the month and 2.8% year-over-year, with shelter remaining the key driver. Energy prices edged higher, while food costs declined modestly.

Economists expect that monthly CPI will increase by 0.2%.

Thursday, June 12

9:00 am – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the value of all goods and services produced in the UK in the current month compared to the previous month. The GDP calculation also includes expenditure on manufactured goods and provided services. Growth in GDP growth may have a positive effect on the pound quotes.

UK GDP grew by 0.2% in March 2025, driven mainly by a 0.4% rise in services output. Over the three months to March, the economy expanded by 0.7%, with services and production contributing positively, while construction was flat.

Economists anticipate a 0.1% decrease.

17:30 – USA: PPI m/m (USD)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by producers for goods, services, and construction. The PPI covers a broad range of industries and is used alongside other economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes from the buyer’s perspective. Growth in the index can have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in April, driven by a sharp 0.7% decline in services, while goods prices were flat. Core PPI edged down 0.1%—its first drop since 2020. Year-over-year, final demand prices rose 2.4%, with core PPI up 2.9%.

Economists expect a reading of 0.2%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

US initial jobless claims rose by 14,000 to 240,000 for the week ending May 24, while insured unemployment hit its highest level since late 2021 at 1.92 million. The 4-week averages for both initial and continuing claims also edged higher.

Analysts are forecasting a monthly figure of 241,000.

Friday, June 13

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD)

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly measure of how consumers perceive current and future economic conditions. Based on a survey of approximately 500 households, it provides insight into consumer confidence and spending behavior. The index is released in two stages: a preliminary estimate and a final revised figure, with the preliminary version typically having a stronger market impact. A higher-than-expected reading generally supports a stronger US dollar, while a weaker reading may signal economic concerns and pressure the dollar lower.

US consumer sentiment was revised higher to 52.2 in May, matching April’s level but still near 2022 lows. The improvement followed a pause on some China tariffs. Expectations rose slightly, while current conditions declined. Inflation expectations were mixed, with year-ahead views steady at 6.6% and long-run expectations revised down to 4.2%.

Analysts expect a reading of 52.5.

17:00 – USA: Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (USD)

University of Michigan (UoM) Inflation Expectations represent the anticipated percentage change in consumer prices over the coming 12 months, as reported by surveyed consumers. The data is released in two stages—Preliminary and Final (Revised)—with the Preliminary report typically having greater market influence due to its earlier release.

A result above market expectations may support a stronger US dollar (bullish), while a lower-than-expected figure can signal weakness in the dollar (bearish).

Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 6.6%, while long-run expectations eased to 4.2%.

Company Earnings (June 9 – 13)

Tuesday, June 10, GameStop Corp. (GME)

Wednesday, June 11: Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

Thursday, June 12, Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

Conclusion

With a full slate of top-tier data releases, this week is likely to shape near-term market sentiment across currencies and equities. Investors will be watching closely for confirmation of disinflation trends in the U.S. and signs of economic resilience or weakness in the UK. While central banks remain cautious, incoming data may offer clearer signals on the direction of monetary policy—and potentially trigger heightened volatility across major assets.