The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for March 31 – April 4, 2025

As the first week of April begins, markets are facing a dense schedule of key economic data that could shape sentiment across currencies, commodities, and equities. While investor focus remains on broader themes like inflation, growth, and monetary policy paths, this week’s indicators will provide fresh insights into labor market resilience, consumer pricing pressures, and the pace of economic activity across major economies. With both PMI readings and labor market data on deck from the US, alongside inflation prints from Europe and Australia’s rate decision, traders and policymakers alike will be closely watching for signals on whether recent economic momentum can hold in the face of persistent uncertainty.

High Impact Economic Events

Monday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Monday All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Tuesday 06:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Tuesday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Wednesday 15:15 (GMT+3) – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Thursday 09:30 am (GMT+3) – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

Monday, March 31

04:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a key economic indicator derived from monthly surveys of enterprise purchasing managers, covering various aspects such as purchasing, production, and distribution. It serves as an important tool for tracking macroeconomic trends and forecasting economic conditions. The Composite PMI Output Index measures changes in overall industry output, including both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. A PMI reading above 50% indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50% signals contraction.

February’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2, signaling a modest recovery after the Chinese New Year. Large enterprises led the rebound at 52.5, while medium and small firms stayed in contraction. Output and new orders improved, but employment and prices remained soft, highlighting an uneven recovery.

Growth is projected to rise slightly, reaching 50.4, according to economists.

All Day – Germany: Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s consumer price index (CPI) tracks average price changes for goods and services across all household types and regions, covering essentials like rent, food, clothing, vehicles, and services such as hairdressing and repairs. It is the Eurozone’s earliest major consumer inflation.

Germany’s annual inflation rate held steady at 2.3% in February 2025. Rising food and service prices continued to drive inflation while falling energy prices helped offset some of the pressure. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4%.

Economists predict a monthly increase of 0.3%.

Tuesday, April 1

06:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Australia’s interest rate decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

A higher interest rate leads to the Australian dollar appreciation.

At its February meeting, the Board decided to cut the cash rate target to 4.10% while reducing the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances to 4.00%.

Economists expect that the board will maintain the current interest rate.

17:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

The Manufacturing PMI edged down to 50.3% in February, showing slight expansion. New orders slipped into contraction, while production stabilized. Prices rose sharply due to tariff concerns, and employment fell as firms continued to cut staff. Despite weaker demand, improvements in inventories and imports suggest cautious recovery.

Analysts expect a contractionary reading this week, with a projected value 49.6.

17:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

It’s a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

In January 2025, US job openings held steady at 7.7 million, while hires remained unchanged at 5.4 million. Total separations changed slightly to 5.3 million, with quits at 3.3 million and layoffs at 1.6 million. On a yearly basis, job openings were down by 728,000.

Analysts predict there will be 7.73 million job openings.

Wednesday, April 2

15:15 – USA: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The ADP Non-farm Employment Changetracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

In February, private employers added 77,000 jobs—the slowest pace since July. Job losses were reported in trade and transportation, health care, education, and information, with small business employment also declining.

Analysts forecast a reading of118,000.

Thursday, April 3

09:30 am – Switzerland: CPI m/m (CHF)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the changes in the prices of goods and services that reflect the spending habits of private households in Switzerland.

It shows how much consumers need to adjust their spending to maintain the same level of consumption despite price fluctuations.

In February 2025, Switzerland’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% from the previous month, reaching 107.4 points. Annual inflation stood at 0.3%. The monthly increase was driven by higher prices for housing rentals, air transport, and international package holidays, while hotel rates, berries, and used car prices declined.

Analysts expect Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to increase by 0.1% in March.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

Initial jobless claims dipped by 1,000 to 224,000, while the 4-week average fell to 224,000, down 4,750 from the prior week.

Economists project a reading of 227,000.

17:00 – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

The Services PMI rose to 53.5% in February, marking eight months of growth. New orders, employment, and supplier deliveries improved, while business activity held steady. Prices increased for the third straight month. Businesses remain cautious amid tariff and federal spending concerns.

Economists project a slight decrease, expecting a reading of 53.0.

Friday, April 4

15:30 – Canada: Employment Change (CAD)

Change in the number of employed individuals in the previous month. In general, when the actual figure is greater than the forecast, it is positive for the currency.

Employment in Canada rose by just 1,100 in February, falling short of the expected 20,000 gain and signaling continued stability after January’s stronger increase. Job gains in retail and finance were offset by declines in professional services and transportation. Nova Scotia saw the largest provincial drop, while other regions showed little change.

Analysts anticipate that Canada will add 9,900 jobs.

15:30 – USA: Non-Farm Employment Change (USD)

The Non-farm Payrolls report reveals the number of new jobs created during the given month in all non-agricultural sectors of the US.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on dollar quotes.

In February, US payrolls rose by 151,000 while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Job gains came from health care, finance, transportation, and social assistance, but federal government jobs declined. Wages grew 0.3% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year, with the labor force participation rate unchanged at 62.4%.

Economists expect a figure of 139,000.

Company Earnings (March 31 – April 4)

Wednesday, April 2: RH (RH)

Thursday, April 3: XOM (Exxon Mobil Corp)

Thursday, April 3: AYI (Acuity Inc.)

Conclusion

With a packed calendar of high-impact releases, this week will be pivotal for shaping market expectations around inflation trends, labor market health, and the future direction of monetary policy. Data from major economies, including China, Germany, the US, and Canada, will offer a broad view of global economic conditions at the start of Q2. As investors weigh incoming figures against policy uncertainty and persistent macroeconomic headwinds, the tone set by this week’s indicators could influence financial markets well beyond the days ahead.