The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for October 28 – November 1, 2024 

In a week filled with important economic data and corporate earnings reports, several key indicators will influence the market narrative. High-impact reports, including the US nonfarm employment change and inflation readings, alongside Japan’s interest rate decision, will provide a comprehensive view of global economic health and inflationary pressures. Additionally, earnings reports from major companies like Alphabet, Apple, and Exxon Mobil will offer insights into sector-specific performance, helping investors navigate both macroeconomic and microeconomic trends. As global and national data emerge, financial markets may experience shifts in sentiment and strategies across major asset classes.

Tuesday 16:00 (GMT+2) – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)

Tuesday 16:00 (GMT+2) – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

Wednesday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)

Wednesday 14:15 (GMT+2) – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Wednesday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Advance GDP q/q (USD)

Thursday 03:30 am (GMT+2) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

Thursday 04:30 am (tent) (GMT+2) – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Thursday 14:30 (GMT+2) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Thursday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Thursday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Friday 14:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

Friday 16:00 (GMT+2) – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

16:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)

Consumer Confidence provides a comprehensive analysis of consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. Published monthly, it examines consumer attitudes, spending intentions, vacation plans, and expectations surrounding inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. The report is segmented by demographics such as age and income and includes insights by region and for the top eight US states. This data is valuable for businesses and policymakers to assess consumer behavior and predict economic trends.

The September 2024 Consumer Confidence Survey revealed a decline in consumer confidence, with the index falling to 98.7 from 105.6 in August. Concerns about the labor market, including fewer job openings and slower payroll growth, contributed to the drop.

Economists expect a reading of 99.2.

16:00 – USA: JOLTS Job Openings (USD)

It’s a monthly report based on employers’ surveys, indicating job vacancies in the US commercial, industrial, and office areas, excluding the farming industry.

Growth in the indicator may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

The August 2024 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings steady at 8.0 million, hires at 5.3 million, and separations slightly down to 5.0 million. Quits declined to 3.1 million. Job openings increased in construction and state/local government but decreased in other services. Layoffs and discharges remained stable at 1.6 million.

02:30 am – Australia: CPI q/q (AUD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of goods and services across various categories of household expenditures. This data provides insight into consumer price trends, helping assess the cost of living and inflationary pressures. The CPI is used by policymakers, including central banks, to guide decisions on monetary policy, such as interest rates, and by businesses to adjust pricing strategies and contracts linked to inflation.

In the June 2024 quarter, Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.0%. Over the past 12 months, the CPI rose by 3.8%. The largest price increases were seen in housing (+1.1%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.2%), clothing and footwear (+3.1%), and alcohol and tobacco (+1.5%).

Economists project a quarterly growth rate of 0.4%.

14:15 – USA: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change tracks the monthly change in employment across 19 manufacturing sectors in the US, excluding the agriculture and government sectors, based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 25 million US employees.

Employment growth may have a positive effect on US dollar quotes.

The September 2024 ADP National Employment Report shows that private sector employment increased by 143,000 jobs, while annual pay rose by 4.7% year-over-year. The report, based on anonymized payroll data from over 25 million US employees, provides real-time insights into the labor market. Notably, the pay growth premium for job changers over job stayers narrowed to 1.9%, the lowest since January.

Analysts project that private-sector employers will increase payrolls by 106,000 positions in October.

03:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a monthly indicator of economic activity in China’s manufacturing sector, published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It surveys 3,200 enterprises across various industries and regions, measuring key sub-indicators like output, new orders, and employment. A PMI reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in September 2024, showing easing pressure but still contracting. Large enterprises saw slight growth, while medium and small firms remained below 50. Output improved, but export orders and backlogs declined. Input prices rose, employment stayed weak, while business expectations held steady at 52.0.

Economists anticipate a figure of 49.9.

04:30 (tent) am – Japan: BOJ Policy Rate (JPY)

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision is made eight times a year. The regulator’s interest rate is used to provide loans to commercial banks. Establishing an interest rate is one of the main tools of the monetary policy used by the Bank of Japan to regulate the strength of its currency.

Interest rate growth can have a positive impact on yen quotes.

The Bank of Japan maintained its overnight call rate at 0.25%, noting moderate economic recovery with flat exports and industrial production.

Economists believe that BOJ will keep the policy rate unchanged.

14:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key measure of the economic output of a country or region. It represents the total value of goods and services produced minus intermediate consumption like raw materials or components. GDP can be calculated using methods such as the value-added approach, which looks at the contribution of each sector to the economy. When GDP grows, it indicates economic expansion, while a slowdown or negative GDP may signal a recession. It’s used as a benchmark for the overall health of an economy.

In July, real GDP increased by 0.2%, following no change in June. Despite the negative impact of wildfires on transportation and accommodation services, growth was driven by the retail trade, public sector, and finance and insurance. Goods-producing industries rose 0.1%, mainly supported by utilities and manufacturing. Overall, 13 out of 20 sectors showed growth.

Analysts forecast a 0.1% increase in the upcoming economic data release.

14:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure the value of goods and services consumed by individuals and households. It’s a key indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large portion of economic activity in the US. The PCE is often used to track inflation trends, as it includes data on prices paid by consumers. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its preferred measure of inflation to guide monetary policy decisions, aiming to maintain price stability in the economy.

In August 2024, personal income and disposable income both rose by 0.2%, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.2%, driven by higher spending on services. The PCE price index rose 0.1%, with a similar increase when excluding food and energy. The personal saving rate was 4.8%.

Economists project a modest increase of 0.2% in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, indicating a slight uptick in price pressures.

14:30 – USD: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

In the week ending October 12, initial unemployment claims decreased by 19,000 to 241,000, while the four-week moving average rose to 236,250. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%. Insured unemployment increased by 9,000 to 1,867,000, with the four-week average at 1,842,750.

Analysts project an increase of 230,000 initial unemployment claims in the upcoming report.

14:30 – USA: Nonfarm Employment Change (USD)

The Nonfarm Payrolls report shows the number of new jobs added in the US across all non-agricultural sectors for a given month. An increase in this indicator can positively impact the value of the dollar.

In September, US nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Job gains occurred in sectors such as food services, health care, government, social assistance, and construction. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, and the average workweek edged down to 34.2 hours.

Analysts project a 131,000 increase in the US nonfarm payroll employment.

16:00 – USA: ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)

The Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of US manufacturing activity. It includes a composite index that indicates sector expansion if above 50% and contraction if below. The report tracks changes in key indicators like New Orders, Production, and Employment, offering insights into the manufacturing sector’s health and the broader economy.

In September 2024, US manufacturing saw its sixth straight month of contraction, with the PMI steady at 47.2%

Analysts project a modest increase in manufacturing activity, anticipating the PMI to edge up to 47.7%.

Monday, October 28: Ford Motor Company (F)

Tuesday, October 29: Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Tuesday, October 29: BP p.l.c. (BP)

Tuesday, October 29: Electronic Arts Inc. (EA)

Tuesday, October 29: McDonald’s Corporation (MCD)

Tuesday, October 29: Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Tuesday, October 29: Snap Inc. (SNAP)

Tuesday, October 29: Visa Inc. (V)

Wednesday, October 30: Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Wednesday, October 30: Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

Wednesday, October 30: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Wednesday, October 30: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)

Wednesday, October 30: Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)

Thursday, October 31: Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Thursday, October 31: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Thursday, October 31: Intel Corporation (INTC)

Thursday, October 31: Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)

Friday, November 1: Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Friday, November 1: Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

In conclusion, this week presents a dynamic period for financial markets, with critical economic data releases and major corporate earnings reports likely to shape investor sentiment. Key indicators such as US nonfarm payrolls, inflation metrics, and Japan’s policy rate decision will provide a comprehensive view of economic health, inflationary trends, and labor market conditions across global markets. Corporate earnings from major players, including tech giants and energy companies, will offer additional insight into sector resilience and performance. As the data unfolds, financial markets may witness shifts in strategies and sentiment across key asset classes, making this week pivotal for investors and policymakers alike.