Unsteady Markets, Shaken Confidence: A Global Economic Rollercoaster 

Last week’s economic highlights included a sharp drop in U.S. consumer confidence, Australia’s higher-than-expected inflation, and slower U.S. GDP growth. Germany’s inflation rose to 2.3%, while Canada’s GDP grew 0.6%. U.S. personal income increased, but spending declined. China’s manufacturing unexpectedly expanded despite new U.S. tariffs. Oil and gold fell, and U.S. stocks declined. Top gainers were QVC Group and Interactive Strength, while AEON Biopharma led the losers. eBay, NVIDIA, and HP reported mixed earnings, with all three stocks ending lower.

17:00 – USA: CB Consumer Confidence (USD)

Consumer confidence fell sharply in February, with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropping 7 points to 98.3, the lowest in three months. The Expectations Index plunged below 80, a level historically linked to recession risk. Confidence weakened across most age and income groups, especially among consumers aged 35 to 55. Pessimism about future business conditions, income, and employment drove the decline, marking the largest drop in confidence since August 2021 and extending a three-month losing streak.

The EURUSD exchange rate increased by 0.48%.

02:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Australia’s monthly CPI indicator rose 2.5% in the year to January 2025, driven by rising food, housing, and tobacco prices. Electricity prices fell 11.5%, helping offset some of the increase. Excluding volatile items, inflation rose to 2.9%, showing underlying price pressures remain.

The AUDUSD declined by 0.69%.

15:30 – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, slightly slower than the 3.1% pace in Q3. Growth was driven by consumer spending and government spending, partially offset by weaker investment. For the full year, GDP increased 2.8%. Inflation ticked slightly higher, with the PCE price index rising 2.4% in Q4, while core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 2.7%.

The EURUSD currency pair decreased by 0.76%.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 for the week ending February 22, up 22,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average increased to 224,000, reflecting a rise in claims. Meanwhile, insured unemployment for the prior week fell slightly to 1.862 million, with the insured unemployment rate holding steady at 1.2%.

The USDJPY increased by 0.46%.

All Day – Germany: German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR)

Germany’s inflation rate is expected to reach +2.3% in February 2025, compared to the same month in 2024, according to preliminary data from Destatis. Consumer prices also rose 0.4% compared to January 2025. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is estimated at +2.6%.

The EURUSD decreased by 0.30%.

15:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Canada’s real GDP grew 0.6% in Q4 2024, driven by strong household spending, exports, and business investment. Per capita GDP rose 0.2%. Residential construction and business investment increased, while inventory drawdowns and higher imports tempered overall growth. Household spending saw its fastest rise in over two years, with notable increases in vehicle purchases and financial services.

The USDCAD rose by 0.15%.

15:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

Personal income in the U.S. rose by $221.9 billion (0.9%) in January 2025, while disposable personal income increased by $194.3 billion (0.9%). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell by $30.7 billion (0.2%), with lower spending on goods offsetting higher spending on services. The personal saving rate was 4.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% for the month and 2.5% from a year ago, with core PCE up 2.6% year-over-year.

The USDJPY edged higher by 0.53%.

03:30 am – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)

China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in February, with the official PMI rising to 50.2 from 49.1 in January, signaling modest growth after months of contraction. The rebound follows Beijing’s stimulus efforts but comes amid new U.S. tariffs, which could weigh on future exports. Nonmanufacturing activity also edged up, supported by stronger construction, while services remained flat.

The USDCNH ticked lower by 0.02%.

1. Crude Oil
   Crude oil prices decreased by 0.36% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   Brent was down 1.52% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.67% weekly decline
4. Silver
   XAGUSD decreased by 4.02% from the last week

1. S&P 500 decreased by 1.13%
2. DJIA was down by 0.82%
3. NASDAQ 100 declined by 3.38%

1. QVC Group Inc. (QVCGB) 399.50%
2. Interactive Strength Inc. (TRNR) 157.00%
3. Santech Holdings Limited (STEC) 147.58%

1. AEON Biopharma, Inc. (AEON) -91.34%
2. SUNation Energy Inc. (SUNE) -76.04%
3. TransCode Therapeutics, Inc. (RNAZ) -75.48%

Wednesday, February 26: EBAY (eBay Inc.)

Wednesday, February 26: NVDA ( NVIDIA Corporation)

Thursday, February 27: HPQ ( HP Inc.)

eBay reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, exceeding both analyst forecasts and its own guidance. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $1.25, above estimates of $1.20, while revenue slightly topped expectations at $2.6 billion. The results highlight eBay’s strong cost controls and strategic adjustments, helping it navigate a competitive market environment.

EBAY shares declined by 6.70% from the previous week.

NVIDIA reported record revenue of $39.3 billion for the fourth quarter, up 12% from Q3 and 78% year-over-year, driven by explosive demand for its Blackwell AI products. Full-year revenue surged 114% to $130.5 billion. GAAP earnings per share rose 147% to $2.94 for fiscal 2025. CEO Jensen Huang highlighted strong AI demand and successful large-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers. NVIDIA also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share, payable on April 2, 2025.

NVDA shares experienced a weekly decline of 7.07%.

HP reported first-quarter revenue of $13.5 billion, up 2.4% year-over-year, with GAAP EPS of $0.59 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.74, both within guidance. Strong commercial PC sales helped offset weaker consumer demand while printing revenue declined 2%. HP raised its Future Ready cost savings target to $1.9 billion for fiscal 2025 and expects free cash flow between $3.2 billion and $3.6 billion for the year. The company also highlighted progress in diversifying its supply chain away from China.

HPQ shares declined by 10.86%.

In conclusion, last week’s economic data highlighted growing concerns about U.S. consumer confidence, slowing economic growth, and persistent inflation pressures globally. While China’s manufacturing showed signs of resilience, new U.S. tariffs cast uncertainty over future trade. Commodity markets were mixed, and major stock indices declined, with notable volatility in corporate earnings, particularly for tech giants like NVIDIA and HP. Overall, markets faced a challenging week, balancing hopes for policy support with rising economic and geopolitical risks.