As the week progresses, attention now turns to a series of key economic releases that could impact USDCHF volatility in the days ahead. With Wednesday’s ADP Nonfarm Employment Change already on the radar, markets are bracing for Thursday’s high-impact data, including Switzerland’s CPI, the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the ISM Services PMI. These events come at a time when USDCHF remains under sustained bearish pressure, driven by both technical weakness and broader macroeconomic concerns. Traders should be prepared for potential price swings as fresh data may challenge or reinforce the prevailing downtrend.
Thursday 17:00 (GMT+3) – USA: ISM Services PMI (USD)
Chart Analysis
Since topping out at 0.91998 on January 13, USDCHF has been locked in a persistent downtrend, initially triggered by a failed swing reversal and further validated by a “Death Cross” — a bearish crossover between the 20- and 50-period EMAs. Price action has remained consistently below the 50-period EMA, reflecting steady downside pressure, with the pair reaching a new low of 0.78709 on July 1.
Momentum indicators continue to support the bearish bias. The Momentum Oscillator remains anchored below the 100 mark, while the RSI is entrenched below the 50 level, both signaling sustained seller dominance in the market.
However, a developing bullish divergence between price and key momentum indicators suggests the selling momentum may be losing steam. While this doesn’t negate the broader downtrend, it does raise the probability of a short-term consolidation or corrective bounce before trend continuation. Traders should remain alert to potential reversal signals while maintaining a bias in line with the prevailing trend.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the bulls take market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
0.80445: The initial resistance level is determined at 0.80445, reflecting the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
0.82142: The second resistance level is set at 0.82142, which mirrors the high point from June 19.
0.84747: The third resistance level is seen at 0.84747, corresponding to the swing high marked May 12.
0.87546: An additional price target has been established at 0.87546, which reflects the low point from March 20.
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers maintain market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
0.77969: The initial support level is seen at 0.77969, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.80548 to 0.82142.
0.76577: The second support level is estimated at 0.76577, representing the weekly support, S2, estimated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
0.75390: The third support level is identified at 0.75390, reflecting the 423.6% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 0.80548 to 0.82142.
0.70674: An additional downside target is 0.70674.
Fundamentals
The U.S. dollar has experienced its steepest first-half decline since 1973, with the dollar index falling 10.8% in the first half of 2025. This drop reflects investor concerns over recent economic and fiscal policies, including new tariffs and rising national debt. The proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which would extend tax cuts and increase borrowing, has added to debt sustainability concerns. As confidence in U.S. assets wanes, investors have shifted toward alternatives such as gold and European equities. Despite the dollar’s recent weakness, analysts say its reserve currency status remains intact for now, though further depreciation is expected through the end of the year.
On the other hand, the Swiss economy could slow down if new U.S. tariffs take full effect, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Right now, the IMF expects Switzerland to grow by 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. But if the U.S. imposes all of its planned tariffs—including on Swiss-made medicines—growth could drop to as low as 1.0% or even 0.9% in 2026.
Switzerland already faces a 31% tariff on some exports to the U.S., its biggest trading partner, which could seriously hurt business. On top of that, global economic uncertainty and more trade barriers could make things worse.
Inflation in Switzerland is expected to stay low, ending 2025 at 0.1% and rising slightly to 0.6% in 2026. With inflation so low, the Swiss National Bank recently cut interest rates to 0% to help support the economy.
Conclusion
With USDCHF trading near multi-month lows and both economies facing policy-driven headwinds, the pair remains vulnerable to sharp moves as markets digest upcoming data. While technical signals continue to favor the bearish trend, the emergence of bullish divergence suggests a possible shift in momentum. Traders should closely monitor Thursday’s releases for fresh directional cues, as they may determine whether the current downtrend deepens or gives way to a corrective phase in the short term. Staying responsive to both technical developments and macro fundamentals will be key in navigating the next phase of USDCHF price action.
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