Weekly Wrap: PMI Surprises, Inflation Eases, Markets Mixed

The past week was packed with key economic data releases and corporate earnings, offering valuable insight into the state of global markets. Flash PMI figures across major economies provided a snapshot of business activity, revealing contrasting trends between manufacturing and services. Inflation data from Australia and the UK highlighted easing price pressures, while U.S. figures pointed to resilient income and spending. In North America, Canada’s GDP beat expectations with broad-based growth. Meanwhile, major U.S. indices ended the week lower despite notable earnings from companies like Cintas, Paychex, and Lululemon. Here’s a comprehensive look at the major economic indicators and market movers from March 24 to 28.

Major Economic Indicators and Events in Review

Monday, March 24

10:15 am – France: Flash PMI (EUR)

France’s private sector shrank for a seventh month in March, though the pace of decline slowed. The Composite PMI rose to 47.0, with manufacturing showing signs of stabilization while services remained weak. New orders and backlogs fell, and job losses continued—driven by cuts in services. Business confidence hit its lowest since April 2020 amid uncertainty and pressure on key sectors. Input cost inflation eased, and output prices rose slightly.

The EURUSD declined by 0.1% compared to the previous day.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash PMI (EUR)

Germany’s private sector grew at its fastest pace in 10 months in March, driven by a rebound in manufacturing output, which rose for the first time in nearly two years. The Composite PMI rose to 50.9, with manufacturing hitting a 36-month high, while services growth slowed to a 4-month low. New orders in manufacturing picked up modestly, but overall demand remained weak. Employment continued to decline, although at a slower rate, and inflationary pressures eased. Business confidence improved slightly, supported by hopes of infrastructure spending and better economic conditions.

The EURJPY increased 0.8% compared to the prior session.

11:30 am – UK: Flash PMI (GBP)

UK private sector growth hit a six-month high in March, led by a rebound in services, while manufacturing slumped. The Composite PMI rose to 52.0, with services gaining on stronger demand and manufacturing falling to an 18-month low. Job cuts continued, cost pressures stayed high, and business confidence remained subdued, especially in manufacturing.

GBPUSD edged up by 0.08% day-over-day.

15:45 – USA: Flash PMI (USD)

U.S. business activity accelerated in March, with the Composite PMI rising to 53.5, driven by a strong rebound in services. However, manufacturing output and confidence declined, pulling the Manufacturing PMI below 50 for the first time since December. Business sentiment weakened further, especially in services, amid concern over tariffs, federal policy changes, and rising costs. Input cost inflation surged, led by manufacturing, but competitive pressure limited price hikes. Job growth returned, though modestly, as firms remained cautious in a still uncertain outlook.

USDJPY rose 0.9% from the previous day.

Wednesday, March 26

02:30 am – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)

Australia’s monthly CPI rose 2.4% in the year to February, slightly down from 2.5% in January. Underlying inflation, excluding volatile items like fuel and holiday travel, eased to 2.7% from 2.9%. The annual trimmed mean, which smooths out extreme price movements, also edged down to 2.7% from 2.8%.

AUDUSD edged down 0.09% compared to the previous session.

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

UK inflation eased in February 2025, with CPIH rising 3.7% annually, down from 3.9% in January, and CPI slowing to 2.8% from 3.0%. Monthly increases for both indices were 0.4%, lower than February 2024’s 0.6%. Core inflation also declined, with clothing and housing costs contributing to the softer price pressures. Owner occupiers’ housing costs rose 7.5% year-on-year, marking the first slowdown since November 2023.

GBPUSD dipped 0.44% from the prior day’s close.

Thursday, March 27

14:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

In the week ending March 22, U.S. initial jobless claims fell slightly to 224,000, down 1,000 from the prior week, which was revised up to 225,000. The 4-week average also declined to 224,000. Insured unemployment held steady at 1.2% for the week ending March 15, with continuing claims dropping by 25,000 to 1.86 million. The 4-week average for continuing claims edged up to 1.87 million.

EURUSD advanced 0.45% compared to the prior session.

Friday, March 28

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

UK retail sales volumes rose by 1.0% in February 2025, following a revised 1.4% increase in January. Growth was driven by non-food stores, with all sub-sectors seeing gains, while supermarket sales dipped after a strong January. Over the three months to February, sales were up 0.3% compared to the previous three months and 2.0% year-on-year.

GBPUSD ticked lower by 0.1% from the previous day’s close.

14:30 – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)

Canada’s real GDP rose 0.4% in January 2025, following a 0.3% gain in December. Growth was broad-based, with 13 of 20 sectors expanding. Goods-producing industries led the increase, up 1.1%—their strongest gain since October 2021—driven by mining, oil and gas, and manufacturing. Services rose modestly by 0.1%.

USDCAD increased 0.04% compared to the previous day.

14:30 – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)

U.S. personal income rose 0.8% in February 2025, with disposable income up 0.9% and consumer spending (PCE) increasing 0.4%. The rise in income was driven by higher transfer receipts and wages, particularly in services. The personal saving rate climbed to 4.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was up 0.4% monthly and 2.8% annually.

EURUSD rose 0.23% from the previous day.

Commodities

1. Crude Oil
   1. Crude oil prices increased by 1.02% over the past week
2. Brent Oil
   1. Brent was up 0.82% compared to the previous week
3. Gold
   1. The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) concluded the week on Friday with a 2.03% weekly increase
4. Silver
   1. XAGUSD increased by 3.31% from the last week

Stock Market

1. S&P 500 decreased by 2.00%
2. DJIA was down by 1.38%
3. NASDAQ 100 declined by 3.01%

Top Gainers

1. MicroAlgo Inc. (MLGO) 588.49%
2. Marblegate Acquisition Corp. (GATE) 244.83%
3. Golden Heaven Group Holdings Ltd. (GDHG) 238.08%

Top Losers

1. WANG & LEE GROUP, Inc. (WLGS) -94.97%
2. Sharps Technology, Inc. (STSS) -80.57%
3. LogicMark, Inc. (LGMK) -80.02%

Company Earnings (March 24 – 28)

Wednesday, March 26: CTAS (Cintas Corporation)

Wednesday, March 26: PAYX (Paychex, Inc.)

Thursday, March 27: LULU (Lululemon Athletica Inc.)

Cintas Corporation announced its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, which ended on February 28, 2025. The company posted revenue of $2.61 billion, marking an 8.4% increase from $2.41 billion in the same quarter of the previous year.

CTAS shares saw a weekly increase of 6.30%.

Paychex reported Q3 earnings of $1.49 per share, slightly above the $1.48 consensus, with revenue of $1.51 billion—up 4.8% year-over-year and in line with expectations. The company posted strong profitability with a 45.28% return on equity and a 32.02% net margin. Paychex recently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.98 per share, yielding 2.6% annually.

PAYX shares advanced 5.60% compared to the previous week.

Lululemon Athletica reported quarterly earnings of $6.14 per share, beating estimates by $0.29. Revenue came in at $3.60 billion, slightly above the $3.59 billion forecast and up 12.3% year-over-year. The company posted a strong return on equity of 42.16% and a net margin of 17.05%. Last year, the company earned $5.29 per share in the same quarter.

LULU shares decreased by 9.16% compared to the previous week’s close.

Conclusion

Overall, the final week of March offered a mixed but informative snapshot of the global economy. While some regions showed early signs of recovery—like Germany’s manufacturing rebound and Canada’s broad-based GDP growth—others, such as France and the UK, faced lingering pressures in services and manufacturing. Inflation trends continued to ease across key markets, offering cautious optimism for central banks. In the U.S., solid income and spending figures were tempered by weak business sentiment in manufacturing. Meanwhile, market volatility persisted, with major equity indices declining. As we move into April, investors and policymakers will be watching closely for signs of momentum—or further headwinds—in a still-fragile global recovery.