The Week Ahead: Key Economic Events to Watch for May 19-23, 2025

A packed week of key economic releases and central bank decisions will offer crucial insights into global growth momentum, inflation trends, and monetary policy direction. Markets will be closely watching Australia’s cash rate decision on Tuesday, with expectations of a rate cut, while Canada and the UK are set to release fresh inflation data. Thursday brings a wave of flash PMI readings from major economies, offering a timely snapshot of manufacturing and services activity amid rising trade tensions and persistent cost pressures. US unemployment claims and flash PMIs will help gauge the health of the world’s largest economy, while retail sales data from the UK and Canada will close out the week. Corporate earnings from names like Home Depot and Baidu add to the event-heavy calendar.

High Impact Economic Events

Tuesday 07:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

Tuesday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

Wednesday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

Thursday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Thursday 10:15 am (GMT+3) – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

Thursday 10:30 am (GMT+3) – Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Thursday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

Thursday 11:30 am (GMT+3) – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

Thursday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Thursday 16:45 (GMT+3) – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

Friday 09:00 am (GMT+3) – UK: Retail Sales (GBP)

Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Tuesday, May 20

07:30 am – Australia: Cash Rate (AUD)

The Interest Rate Decision is one of the key instruments of the national monetary and credit policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

A higher interest rate leads to the appreciation of the Australian dollar.

At its meeting on April 1, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances at 4 per cent.

Analysts anticipate a rate cut of 25 basis points.

15:30 – Canada: CPI m/m (CAD)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation, tracking changes in the prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time. It covers eight major categories: food, shelter, household operations, clothing, transportation, health and personal care, recreation and education, and alcohol and tobacco.

In March, CPI rose 2.3% year over year, down from 2.6% in February, mainly due to lower travel and gas prices. Excluding gas, it rose 2.5%. Monthly CPI rose 0.3%.

Analysts predict a 0.5% reading.

Wednesday, May 21

09:00 am – UK: CPI y/y (GBP)

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose 3.4% and CPI 2.6% year over year, both down from February. The slowdown was led by lower costs in recreation, fuel, and housing, partly offset by higher clothing prices. Core inflation also eased slightly.

Economists expect a CPI reading of 3.3%.

Thursday, May 22

10:15 am – France: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing sector. It is based on surveys of purchasing managers across key areas such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is widely used to gauge the overall health of the manufacturing economy and to anticipate economic trends, influencing business decisions and policymaking.

Output rose for the first time in nearly three years, though growth was marginal. New orders fell more slowly, and business confidence hit an 11-month high. Firms cut jobs and prices amid weak demand and strong competition. PMI rose to 48.7 but remained below the 50.0 growth mark.

Economists project a contractionary reading of 48.9.

10:15 am – France: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector. It is based on surveys of business executives in industries such as finance, healthcare, retail, and other service-oriented areas. The index reflects changes in key variables such as new business, employment, prices, and output. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. It is a critical gauge for assessing economic health and guiding monetary policy decisions.

France’s service sector contracted for the eighth month, with the PMI falling to 47.3. New orders declined sharply, driven by weak domestic demand, though export losses eased. Hiring slowed, optimism rose slightly but stayed below average, and prices held steady amid modest cost pressures and strong competition.

Economists anticipate that the contraction will persist, expecting a reading of 47.7.

10:30 am – Germany: Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR)

German manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace in over three years, driven by stronger export demand. The PMI edged up to 48.4, its highest since late 2021. Despite increased production and rising factory prices, firms remained cautious, cutting jobs and facing weaker future confidence due to tariff concerns. Input costs fell sharply, while delivery times improved again.

Analysts are projecting a figure of 48.8.

10:30 am- Germany: Flash Services PMI (EUR)

Germany’s service sector returned to contraction in April, with the PMI falling to 49.0 from 50.9. New business declined for the eighth month, and business confidence hit a seven-month low amid tariff concerns. Despite weaker demand, employment rose at the fastest pace in nearly a year. Input costs increased due to higher wages, but firms were cautious with price hikes due to strong competition.

Analysts expect that Germany’s service sector will continue to contract, with a reading of 49.6.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP)

UK manufacturing remained in contraction, with the PMI at 45.4, its seventh month below 50. Output, new orders, and jobs all declined amid weak domestic and export demand, worsened by tariff fears and global uncertainty. Input cost inflation hit a 28-month high, driven by rising wages and supply chain pressures. Business confidence fell to its lowest since late 2022.

Analysts forecast a contractionary print of 46.2.

11:30 am – UK: Flash Services PMI (GBP)

UK services contracted for the first time in 17 months, with the PMI falling to 49.0. New orders declined, led by the steepest drop in export sales since February 2021. Rising global uncertainty, US tariffs, and fragile client confidence weighed on demand. Business expectations hit a 2.5-year low, while input and output price inflation surged due to higher payroll costs. Job cuts continued as firms remained cautious.

Economists expect the UK Services PMI to be at 50.0.

15:30 – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)

An initial claim is filed by an unemployed individual seeking eligibility for unemployment insurance after leaving a job. This count serves as a leading economic indicator, reflecting labor market conditions. However, because these are weekly administrative data, they can be volatile and challenging to adjust seasonally.

Initial jobless claims held steady at 229,000. The 4-week average rose to 230,500. Insured unemployment edged up to 1.881 million, with the rate unchanged at 1.2%. Both initial and continuing claims saw minor upward revisions to prior weeks.

Analysts expect 227,000 initial unemployment claims.

16:45 – USA: Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD)

Manufacturing growth stalled in April, with the PMI steady at 50.2. Output dipped, export orders fell sharply due to tariffs, and business confidence hit a 10-month low. Input costs stayed high, and selling prices rose at the fastest pace since early 2023. Jobs were cut for the first time in six months.

Analysts project a contractionary reading of 49.9.

16:45 – USA: Flash Services PMI (USD)

US service sector growth slowed to a 17-month low, with the PMI dropping to 50.8. Weaker demand, falling export sales, and growing trade policy uncertainty pushed business confidence to its lowest since late 2022. Hiring slowed, and firms raised prices at the fastest pace in three months to offset rising costs from tariffs and wages.

Analysts expect a growth reading of 50.7.

Friday, May 23

09:00 am – UK: Retail Sales (GBP)

It shows the changes in the value of retail goods sold in the UK for the given month compared to the previous month. The calculation uses season-adjusted data from British retailers.

The indicator is used in forecasting, budgeting, and developing UK financial and economic policy. Retail sales growth can positively affect British pound quotes.

Retail sales volumes rose 0.4% in March, following a revised 0.7% gain in February. Good weather boosted clothing and outdoor sales, while supermarket sales declined. Quarterly sales rose 1.6% from Q4 2024 and 1.7% year over year.

Economists see an increase of 0.4% for April retail sales.

15:30- Canada: Retail Sales m/m (CAD)

Canada’s Retail Sales track the month-to-month changes in the value of goods sold by retail stores. This measurement is based on data collected from thousands of retail outlets, which is then scaled up to represent the entire country’s retail activity.

Retail sales fell 0.4% to $69.3 billion in February, driven by declines at motor vehicle and parts dealers. In volume terms, sales also fell 0.4%. However, core retail sales (excluding autos and fuel) rose 0.5%, showing strength in other sectors.

Economists anticipate a reading of 0.2%.

Company Earnings (May 19 – 23)

Monday, May 19: TCOM (Trip.com Group Limited)

Tuesday, May 20: HD (The Home Depot, Inc.)

Wednesday, May 21: BIDU (Baidu, Inc.)

Conclusion

This week’s economic calendar is loaded with data that could shape near-term market direction and policy expectations. From central bank decisions and inflation updates to PMI surveys and retail sales reports, investors will be watching closely for signs of resilience or further softening in global growth. With trade tensions and cost pressures continuing to cloud the outlook, these high-impact releases will be key in assessing how businesses and consumers are navigating uncertainty, and what that might mean for rates, currencies, and broader market sentiment going forward.