Bitcoin Nears $100K Amid Key Economic Data and Trump’s Crypto Shake-Up

Major economic data releases, including U.S. Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims, along with the UK’s Retail Sales figures, are set to influence market trends and currency movements. Bitcoin’s strong recovery toward $100,000, driven by anticipation of regulatory changes under Trump’s administration and favorable inflation data, highlights growing optimism in the crypto market.

Thursday 02:30 am (GMT+2) – Australia: Employment Change (AUD)
Thursday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: GDP m/m (GBP)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+2) – USA: Unemployment Claims (USD)
Friday 09:00 am (GMT+2) – UK: Retail Sales m/m (GBP)

After peaking at an all-time high of 108,280.20 on December 17, BTCUSD has struggled to sustain its bullish momentum, retreating into a consolidation phase and touching a low of 88,919.00. A notable Pin Bar reversal at lower levels reignited bullish sentiment, driving the price above the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), further bolstering upward momentum.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bullish narrative. The Momentum Oscillator remains above the critical 100 mark, signaling sustained upward pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above 50 highlights continued buying interest.
Despite these positive signals, BTCUSD is yet to breach the Upper Channel Line of the bearish Regression Channel, drawn from the all-time high (108,280.20) to the recent low (88,919.00). This resistance suggests that while near-term strength persists, a potential pullback toward the Regression Channel remains a possibility.

Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
102601.50: The initial resistance level is established at 102601.50, which mirrors the peak from January 7.
108280.20: The second price target is set at 108280.20, representing the all-time high marked on December 17.
112631.44: The third price objective is observed at 112631.44, corresponding with the weekly resistance, R3, calculated using the standard Pivot Points methodology.
124739.79: An additional upside target is projected at 124739.79, mirroring the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the high point, 102601.60, to the low point, 88919.00.

Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
96033.97: The initial support level is seen at 96033.97, corresponding to the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
88919.00: The second support level is estimated at 88919.00, representing the daily low of the Pin Bar recorded on January 13.
84524.40: The third support level is identified at 84524.40, reflecting the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from the swing low, 91429.00, to the swing high, 102601.50.
73589.90: An additional downside target is 73589.90, mirroring the peak marked on October 29.

Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, nearing $100,000 after early January dips. This surge is fueled by speculation surrounding Donald Trump’s planned executive orders, which are expected to be issued on January 20. These orders could address crypto regulations, including the repeal of the controversial SAB121 policy, which requires banks to classify crypto as liabilities on their balance sheets.
Supportive U.S. inflation data, revealing slightly lower-than-expected core inflation, has further bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024, increasing liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin. Analysts remain optimistic, with projections targeting $200,000 by the end of 2025 as institutional investment flows are anticipated to resume under the Trump administration.
Forbes also highlights that Trump’s “bitcoin price bombshell” and regulatory shifts could catalyze exponential growth, with industry leaders forecasting Bitcoin’s potential to reach a $5 million valuation, equating to a $100 trillion market capitalization.

With significant economic data releases on the horizon, market participants are poised to navigate potential volatility in currency and equity markets. Bitcoin’s recovery toward $100,000, underpinned by expectations of regulatory shifts and favorable macroeconomic conditions, highlights a resurgence of optimism in the crypto space. While momentum indicators point to continued bullishness, technical resistance levels remain a critical hurdle.